There is a full 15-game MLB slate on Sunday, with plenty of player props to choose from.
I have compiled my three best home run props for Sunday. As always, monitor the odds and available pricing, as the player prop market is constantly changing.
Here are my free MLB home run picks for Sunday, June 1.
Best MLB home run props today
Manny Machado to hit a home run (+290 at DraftKings)
Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+205 at DraftKings)- Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run (+340 at DraftKings)
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HR picks for June 1
Manny Machado to hit a home run (+290 at DraftKings)
The San Diego Padres host the Pittsburgh Pirates to kick off the evening portion of Sunday’s MLB slate. Left-hander Andrew Heaney takes the mound for Pittsburgh, and he appears due for regression.
Despite a 3.41 ERA this season, the southpaw owns a 4.74 expected ERA (xERA) and ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, and barrel rate. If anyone on San Diego is poised to capitalize on that expected regression, it’s Manny Machado.
Machado ended May in excellent form, posting a .677 slugging percentage, 1.060 OPS, and two home runs over his final eight games. That success is likely to continue against Heaney, off whom Machado has already homered twice in 21 career at-bats.
Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+205 at DraftKings)
ESPN’s "Sunday Night Baseball" features the two best teams in Major League Baseball, with the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the New York Yankees. Shohei Ohtani leads all of baseball in home runs, powered by a recent surge at the plate.
Ohtani has hit five home runs over his past six games, posting a 1.000 slugging percentage and 1.444 OPS during that span. His Baseball Savant profile is a sea of red, as he ranks in the 100th percentile in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), expected slugging (xSLG), average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.
That positions Ohtani well in this matchup against left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, who is set to start for New York. In his career against Yarbrough, Ohtani is 4-for-10 with a home run, a triple, and two doubles.
Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run (+340 at DraftKings)
Another Dodgers hitter worth backing in this matchup is Teoscar Hernández, who owns a stellar track record against Yarbrough.
Through 36 career at-bats against the left-hander, Hernández has hit seven home runs and posted a 1.000 slugging percentage.
While Yarbrough has been effective since transitioning to a starting role, his numbers may be inflated by weak competition. His four starts have come against the Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, Athletics, and Tampa Bay Rays.
Excluding the Athletics, three of those teams rank in the bottom half of the league in OPS. Yarbrough faces a much tougher challenge in Hernández and the rest of the Dodgers’ lineup.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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