Holy cow, it’s June! After a frustrating May, I am looking to open this month with a bang.
The board tonight is loaded with mispriced prop opportunities, and I am leaning into some familiar power bats in James Wood, Rafael Devers, and Jonathan Aranda to get things rolling.
Read on for my MLB Player Props and MLB picks for Monday, June 1.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 James Wood |
Over 1.5 Total Bases | +115 |
 Rafael Devers |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | +122 |
 Jonathan Aranda |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | -136 |
James Wood Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Washington Nationals slugger James Wood finds himself in yet another smash spot following his big performance on Sunday. This evening, he draws Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara, who owns a poorly rated matchup ISO and strikeout profile, according to Batters-Box.
The veteran right-hander has also struggled mightily against left-handed hitters lately. Over the last 30 lefties he's faced, opponents have produced a 50% hard-hit rate and a 15.4% barrel rate.
On top of that, Alcantara owns a 26.9% ground-ball rate and a massive 73.1% elevation rate (fly balls plus line drives). Those left-handed batters have generated a .455 xwOBA and .695 xSLG during that span.
Meanwhile, Wood has been absolutely scorching the baseball. Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he's posted a .509 xwOBA while recording a 31.25% barrel rate.
The Nationals' leadoff man also carries the highest arsenal coverage among today's elite-rated hitters on Batters-Box, checking in at 94.5% against Alcantara's pitch mix.
I'd play this prop down to even money, but I wouldn't pay juice for it. Also, don't be afraid to sprinkle a little on Wood to leave the yard in back-to-back games
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Nationals.TV
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (+122)
Some people love to argue that "Vegas knows," but when it comes to baseball, I truly don't think they care. Win or lose, San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers should not be +122 to record 2+ hits, runs, and RBI tonight.
"But...but...but he hit three doubles yesterday."
Okay?
Across 228 elite ratings on Batters-Box, Devers clears this number 55.7% of the time. Win or lose, this is a clear misprice.
Devers also owns 83% arsenal coverage against Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Chad Patrick. The Brewers starter has been allowing plenty of hard contact to left-handed bats lately, surrendering a 44.2% hard-contact rate and a 9.3% barrel rate over his last 60 batters faced.
His ground-ball rate also sits below 35%, pushing his elevation rate north of 65%.
If Devers elevates one tonight, there's a good chance it's leaving the yard.
Few hitters are seeing the ball better right now. Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Devers owns a .449 wOBA, a 193 wRC+, and a 59% hard-contact rate.
Give me Devers to leave the yard and clear 1.5 HRR. Whatever you do, don't pay juice on this prop.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FS1
Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-136)
I would like to start out by saying I typically would never pay this much juice on a hits, runs, RBI prop, and would usually default to the plus money on the 2+ bases prop.
However, Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Jonathan Aranda has a 61.36% hit rate on this prop across his previous 44 elite ratings on Batters-Box. I am willing to trust that over a 43.18% hit rate on 2+ bases. As always, a sprinkle on the home run is in play; he hits this 36.36% of the time at home (22 elite ratings).
Aranda draws Detroit Tigers right-hander Ty Madden, who enters with a poorly rated average-hitter matchup wOBA and hard-contact profile. Madden has also struggled against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .324 xBA and a .443 xSLG.
Aranda carries nearly 81% arsenal coverage against Madden’s pitch mix. On top of that, he has been crushing the ball over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, posting a .875 SLG and a .559 wOBA while generating 68.4% hard contact, a 31.6% barrel rate, and a 94.8% elevation rate (fly balls plus line drives).
Aranda is also a strong walk candidate with a 14.3% walk rate this season, which adds to the appeal of the HRR prop. I would not play this any higher than -140, but beyond that range it makes more sense to take the plus money on his bases instead.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, Tigers.TV
- Prop picks: 176-306-29, +4.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
