With such a loaded slate on the board, there were several MLB player props to sift through as I looked for the best value.
I've compiled my three best home run props for Sunday, April 27, which features a play for tonight's Sunday Night Baseball game between the Phillies and Cubbies.
Best MLB home run props today
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Ozuna (+360) -
Hernandez (+340) -
Tucker (+500)
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HR picks for April 27
Marcell Ozuna (+360 at DraftKings)
Let's kick these MLB picks off in the ATL.
The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Atlanta Braves in the afternoon portion of this MLB slate. Righty Brandon Pfaadt takes the mound for Arizona, and he should serve as a good sell-high candidate.
Despite his success so far in 2025, Pfaadt’s underlying metrics suggest regression is likely. He ranks in the bottom third of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA) and barrel rate.
There may be no better candidate to take advantage of this expected regression than slugger Marcell Ozuna. Through five plate appearances against Pfaadt, Ozuna is 3-for-5 with a homer
Teoscar Hernandez (+340 at DraftKings)
At the same time, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Pittsburgh Pirates. Outfielder Teoscar Hernandez has been explosive for Los Angeles this season, boasting a .551 slugging percentage and .845 OPS.
His analytics are equally impressive, given he ranks in the 87th percentile in xBA and 82nd percentile in expected slugging percentage (xSLG). That success is likely to continue against LHP Bailey Falter, who takes the mound for Pittsburgh.
Through five starts this season, Falter is 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He's struggled against opposing power, ranking in the 20th percentile in average exit velocity and eighth percentile in hard-hit rate.
Kyle Tucker (+500 at DraftKings)
Sunday’s nightcap features the Chicago Cubs hosting the Philadelphia Phillies. Not many pitchers have struggled this season as much as Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola, who takes the mound in this matchup.
Nola is 0-5 through five starts with a 6.43 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. He also ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
That is good news for Chicago’s Kyle Tucker, who is arguably the NL MVP thus far. Not only has Tucker been dominant this season, but he is also 3-for-9 in his career against Nola with two dingers.
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (+250)
- Juan Soto, New York Mets (+390)
- Pete Alonso, New York Mets (+425)
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
Not intended for use in MA.
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