MLB Home Run Derby 2023 Prop Picks and Best Bets: First-Round Fireworks From Vlad, Mookie

Prop bet #1: No home cooking

This is going to be an unpopular play, particularly for those in Seattle. But I’m fading Julio Rodriguez in this year’s Home Run Derby.

Yes, I know the derby is taking place in his backyard at Seattle's T-Mobile Park. And yes, I know J-Rod was electric in last year’s event at Dodger Stadium, blasting 63 home runs in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals vs. Juan Soto.

But last year’s J-Rod is not this year’s J-Rod. Part of the reason for the Mariners' struggles is because Rodriguez looks like he has taken a step back in 2023.

The right-handed slugger still hits the ball hard but doing it with consistency has been a problem this year and consistency is king in a derby setting. Rodriguez has hit a mediocre 13 home runs this season and has seen his some of his other power numbers drop considerably. 

The M’s centerfielder has an expected slugging percentage of .436 which ranks in the 61st percentile and a barrel rate of 9.8%, which is in the 63rd percentile. Sure, those numbers are fine but rank near the bottom of this year’s competitors and last year they were .460 and 13.8%. 

The matchup doesn’t do Rodriguez any favors, either. He’ll go up against two-time derby winner Pete Alonso in Round 1. Now, Rodriguez and Alonso faced off in the semifinals with Julio outslugging Pete 31-23 but I think the Polar Bear has the edge this time around.

As a two-time winner, the Mets first baseman knows what to expect in this competition. No one has hit more derby dingers than Alonso. He also has the record for the most home runs hit in the first round with 35.

On top of that, he has been the more consistent power hitter of the two this season. Alonso ranks in the 95th percentile in xSLG and the 91st percentile in barrel rate. He also has the edge over Rodriguez in expected home runs, average home run distance, and no-doubter percentage (that rate in which home runs would be home runs in all 30 ballparks).

I get the hometown angle with Rodrigues here, but the fact is he’s been arguably the most inconsistent home run hitter in the field this year. I like the Polar Bear to exact some revenge on J-Rod this year, which means just one round for Rodriguez. I’m taking the Under on Rodriguez’s total home runs at 28.5.

Julio Rodriguez prop: Under 28.5 total home runs (-125 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Vlad, Mookie put on show

For my money, Mookie Betts vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the hardest first-round matchup to predict. That’s because I believe both Betts and Guerrero have an excellent chance to lift the trophy Monday night in Seattle. 

Betts enters the Home Run Derby as the third seed after an incredible first half that saw him swat an awesome 26 dingers and lead the National League in slugging. Betts may say he doesn’t have a swing for the derby but I still believe he can put on a good show.

While his home runs don’t always go the furthest, he does a better job of putting power on the ball at a more consistent level than arguably anyone in baseball. 

The former MVP is the leader in this field in xSLG, sitting in the 97th percentile. He is also in the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity and the 83rd in barrel rate. Additionally, 42.3% of his home runs are no-doubters. That’s the fourth-best rate in the field. So, while Betts’ dingers may not be the biggest bombs, they aren’t exactly Yankee Stadium cheapies either.

The guy who leads the field in no-doubter rate is Betts’ opponent in Round 1. Vladdy. At 61.5%.

Guerrero is having a very interesting year. At a quick glance, most would say he’s struggling. So, why is a guy with just 13 home runs the second favorite to win the derby? Let me tell you.

For starters, the advanced numbers say Vladdy is hitting the ball consistently and for power. He ranks in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and expected batting average. In the 96th percentile in xSLG and the 88th percentile in barrel rate. So, basically, he’s built for a competition like this.

Oh, and he has the record for most home runs hit in a single derby with 91 back in 2019, although he did come up one home run short vs. Alonso in the final round. He also has the record for the most home runs hit in a single round with 40. His average for home runs per round that year (not including the swing-off) was 27. 

Vladdy will also have some familiarity tonight. The guy who tossed him those meatballs in 2019 is current Jays manager John Schneider and he’ll be doing it again on Monday.

This might be one of the rare cases where the Home Run Derby actually helps a player's home run numbers get back on track. 

This is going to be a fun matchup in the first round. I expect Vladdy to do the heavy lifting here and 25 home runs is certainly on the table. Mookie will be consistent enough to put a scare in Vladdy and send this one over the combined total for the two stars.

Mookie Betts and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. prop: Over 41.5 total home runs first-round matchup (-120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Coming up short

Two aspects that always must be looked at for a derby are venue and weather. This year’s Home Run Derby will of course be held at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. 

Now, you wouldn’t exactly classify T-Mobile as a hitter-friendly park. According to Statcast’s Park Factor, T-Mobile is just below league average when it comes to home runs, ranking 18th among MLB parks. 

T-Mobile is 331 feet down the left-field line and 326 down the right, with straight-away center field measuring at 401 feet. So, left-handed sluggers might have a little more luck here. But there are no pure lefties in the field and there is only one switch-hitter in Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman. 

Meanwhile, the forecast looks great with mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures in the mid-60s. The wind shouldn’t be much of a factor, topping out around seven miles per hour and blowing across the field from left to right. 

While the weather conditions look wonderful, I wouldn’t expect any 500-foot bombs tonight. At DraftKings, you can find the longest home run of the night at a whopping 490.5 feet. That would be a massive dong and I just don’t see it happening.

Not only is T-Mobile a below-average homer park, but it’s also just hard to hit home runs that far anywhere outside of Denver. The longest home run we have seen this season is 461 feet (by Rutschman). And do you want to know the longest home runs in this contest in each of the last three derbies, not counting the ones in the thin air of Coors Field in 2021? Juan Soto whacked one 482 feet at a much more hitter-friendly Dodger Stadium last year, Vladdy hit one 476 in 2019 at Progressive Field in Cleveland, and the longest at Nationals Park in 2018 was 473 feet.

Side note: I do think there is some value in Rutschman to hit the longest dinger tonight at +2,500. He can hit as a lefty, has the longest HR in the Majors this year, and he's second in No Doubter % and fourth avg HR distance in the field.

But what I really love is the Under 490.5 feet for the longest home run tonight.

Longest Home Run prop: Under 490.5 feet (-145 at DraftKings)