Tuesday is here, and with it comes a loaded slate full of baseball goodness.
My MLB picks focus on moneyline plays for each game on June 30.
MLB moneyline picks for June 30
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 White Soxvs  Orioles |
+122 |
 Rangersvs  Guardians |
-113 |
 Piratesvs  Phillies |
+203 |
 Tigersvs  Yankees |
+108 |
 Metsvs  Blue Jays |
+108 |
 Nationalsvs  Red Sox |
-127 |
 Cardinalsvs  Braves |
+133 |
 Redsvs  Brewers |
-160 |
 Raysvs  Royals |
+111 |
 Padresvs  Cubs |
+138 |
 Twinsvs  Astros |
+106 |
 Marlinsvs  Rockies |
+122 |
 Dodgersvs  Athletics |
-156 |
 Angelsvs  Mariners |
-170 |
 Giantsvs  Diamondbacks |
+102 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 6-30.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for June 30
White Sox vs Orioles: White Sox (+122)
White Sox win probability: 45%
"Oh, Eric Fedde is on the bump. Fade the Chicago White Sox today."
Are we not aware that in Fedde's last five starts, he owns a 1.69 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and has done a great job limiting hard contact? We would rather back Trey Gibson's 5.70 ERA, 4.88 xERA, and 1.69 WHIP over his last five?
I will keep my bias in this one; give me the more consistent offense, the White Sox.
Rangers vs Guardians: Rangers (-113)
Rangers win probability: 53%
There is no way I could possibly back the Cleveland Guardians when they have a 74 wRC+, .274 wOBA, and .603 OPS in their last 21 games.
Even in their last six, the numbers are identical. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers' offense is howling, 125 wRC+, .349 wOBA, and .787 OPS in their last six.
With Jacob deGrom on the bump, owning a 3.10 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 30.77% strikeout rate in his last five, give me the Rangers.
Pirates vs Phillies: Pirates (+203)
Pirates win probability: 33%
In terms of value, I would take the Pittsburgh Pirates here. Their offense has been humming, and Cristopher Sanchez owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, allowing over 42% hard contact.
Tigers vs Yankees: Tigers (+108)
Tigers win probability: 48%
One type of player I always gravitate toward in sports is the lovable lunatic, and Tarik Skubal fits that mold perfectly.
After getting shelled last week by the New York Yankees, you can bet that has been sitting with him ever since. I do not care that Cam Schlittler is on the mound for New York; their offense has been ice cold lately, similar to my bets this month.
Mets vs Blue Jays: Mets (+108)
Mets win probability:48%
Ice-cold Kevin Gausman plus an ice-cold Toronto Blue Jays offense equals New York Mets moneyline.
Gausman has posted an 8.40 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over his last three starts, while the offense over their last six games owns a sub-80 wRC+, .280 wOBA, and .635 OPS.
The Mets have started to heat up over the last two weeks, and I am not going to pass up on them at plus money against a struggling Toronto team.
Nationals vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-127)
Red Sox win probability: 56%
The Boston Red Sox are on a tear lately, posting a 116 wRC+, .341 wOBA, and .782 OPS. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals have been solid in their own right over that same stretch, with a sub-30% strikeout rate, 101 wRC+, and .313 wOBA.
Cade Cavalli has struggled all season, while Connelly Early has not been much better for the BoSox, though his expected ERA over his last five outings suggests he should be performing better than what we have seen so far.
Cardinals vs Braves: Cardinals (+133)
Cardinals win probability: 43%
Very short, very sweet.
We are getting plus money on the St. Louis Cardinals this evening, and the Atlanta Braves have struggled all month. Why would we pass up this value?
For those unaware, over their last 21 games the Braves have posted a .267 wOBA, 68 wRC+, .600 OPS, .120 ISO, and just a 5.6% barrel rate. The Cardinals over that same stretch have a .337 wOBA, 117 wRC+, .760 OPS, and .156 ISO.
Cardinals please!
Reds vs Brewers: Brewers (-160)
Brewers win probability: 62%
Country singer Rhett Lowder takes the bump for the Cincinnati Reds, and he has had his xERA hovering around 6.00 over his last five starts.
On the road this season, that number sits at 5.72, along with a 1.70 WHIP and just a 14.29% strikeout rate. Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Brandon Sproat has been heating up over his last three outings, posting a 2.87 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP.
The Reds offense has been struggling over the last few weeks, and I want no part of backing them. I will take the more well-rounded team at -160.
Rays vs Royals: Royals (+111)
Royals win probability: 48%
The only reason I lean with the Kansas City Royals this evening is how poorly the Tampa Bay Rays have been against southpaws recently, with only three hitters batting above .250 in their last 30 plate appearances.
Sure, Griffin Jax has been nails, but his xERA over his last five outings sits at 5.96. Jax is also allowing a 47% hard hit rate and a 16.67% barrel rate during that stretch as well.
Padres vs Cubs: Padres (+138)
Padres win probability: 42%
This may stem from my lack of respect for Chicago Cubs southpaw Matthew Boyd, but I do not think he is a good pitcher. Plus, the San Diego Padres offense is peppered with guys who perform very well against lefties.
I am already in love with Ty France this evening, so backing the Padres correlates. Their offense has been humming as of late, so the plus money feels worth attacking.
Twins vs Astros: Astros (+106)
Astros win probability: 48%
Real short and sweet, Joe Ryan has been amazing for the Minnesota Twins, but he has been allowing a lot of hard contact.
Today feels like the day Yordan Alvarez gets back on track, potentially leading the Houston Astros to a win. I cannot ignore a nearly 50% hard-hit rate and a 13.58% barrel rate against opposing hitters.
Marlins vs Rockies: Rockies (+122)
Rockies win probability: 45%
The way this offense has been playing, especially Hunter Goodman, makes it hard for me not to take the Colorado Rockies at plus money.
The Rockies catcher is producing a 66.67% hard-hit rate and a 33.33% barrel rate over his last five games. Against a below-average Marlins rotation, I think those numbers can continue.
On top of that, Eury Perez is on the mound, sporting a 6.04 road ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. Sure, Tanner Gordon has not been the sexiest pitcher of all time, but it is hard to pass up a hot offense in this spot.
Dodgers vs Athletics: Dodgers (-156)
Dodgers win probability: 61%
Athletics southpaw Jeffrey Springs has been atrocious this season, especially at home, posting a 6.43 ERA and 1.47 WHIP while allowing a 10.46% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
With the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bats waking back up over the last few weeks, and this game being in Sacramento, it is hard for me to pass up backing the Monstars of L.A.
Angels vs Mariners: Mariners (-170)
Mariners win probability: 63%
The Jose Soriano AL Cy Young train has fallen off the tracks, as he now owns a 5.70 ERA, 5.33 xERA, 1.82 WHIP, and a 15.18% walk rate over his last five starts.
It has to be the Seattle Mariners in this spot, with Bryan Woo always nails at home. This should be a spot for the Mariners to snap out of their funk and get back on track.
Giants vs Diamondbacks: Giants (+102)
Giants win probability: 50%
It is never Brandon Pfaadt, who owns a 6.39 ERA, 4.76 xERA, and 1.50 WHIP on the year. He draws a San Francisco Giants lineup with a few bats that have been heating up, most notably Rafael Devers, who has a .625 wOBA in his last 30 at-bats versus right-handed pitching.
The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been ice cold this month, and I want no part of banking on their get right game being now.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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