The New York Yankees are finally back home and will start things off with a series against the Cleveland Guardians this evening.
This will be the first game back for New York after going 10-5 on its lengthy west coast trip over the last two weeks. Although the Bronx Bombers disappointed in a hugely billed series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, they did manage to avoid a sweep in the Sunday Night Baseball finale.
My Guardians vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks have them find the win column once again on Tuesday, June 3.
Guardians vs Yankees prediction
My Guardians vs Yankees best bet: Carlos Rodon to record a win (+110 at bet365)
For the moment, it appears that the New York Yankees are finally getting the Carlos Rodon they signed up for almost two years ago. May was spectacular, featuring five starts and a 1.47 ERA. The mark was the best single-month ERA for the left-handed veteran since June of 2022. We’re backing him to keep it going tonight.
The length that Rondon typically gives you is a critical point of this handicap. In every game the 32-year-old has pitched this season, he’s met the required threshold needed to record a win. That includes a matchup against this same opponent earlier this year, where he had seven scoreless innings on an efficient 90 pitches. While he may not go that deep again, we do like his chances to replicate that success.
The key for Rodon’s turnaround so far this season has been both the improvement of the fastball but also the emergence of the sinker. He’s gone from not throwing almost at all last season to the pitch making up 10% of his arsenal and producing a .111 batting average, 20% whiff rate, and .118 slugging percentage. It was effective for him in that first meeting against the Guardians earlier this season, where he mixed it in with the changeup, which produced a 45% whiff rate. That seems repeatable given that six players will be in the lineup today with an above-average whiff rate against such pitches.
Rodon has given a quality start in eight of his last ten starts, and if you get that again — not even necessarily complete dominance — then you feel good about the chances to cash this bet. Why? Because the matchup on the other side is such a strong one for the Yankees' hitters.
Tanner Bibee’s performance against the Yankees earlier this season, where he surrendered just two earned runs in six innings, doesn’t look bad on paper. However, when you factor in some abhorrent road/home splits and the under-the-hood look of that game, the picture for him tonight gets darker.
The Yankees were quite unlucky that day. Ben Rice led off the game with a homer, followed up with an Aaron Judge single, but after that? Not a ton of success despite expected numbers that said otherwise.
Paul Goldschmidt hit into a double play with an exit velocity of 101. Two innings later, New York would put two balls into play with an expected batting average of .600 that ended in putouts. And then another double-play ball with a triple-digit exit velocity, an inning after.
Bibee was lucky to leave the game with that slash line, and his underlying metrics project as a great matchup for the Yankees beyond that small sample view. On the year, his barrel rate and hard-hit rate sit in the bottom 30% of the league. The Yankees are one of two teams in baseball ranked in the top five of both metrics. In addition to that, Bibee throws some variation of a fastball nearly 55% of the time, and we’ve heavily documented throughout the year just how good the team is against the heater.
Using a probability model that factors in Rodon’s win rate, the Yankees’ offensive edge, and Bibee’s road struggles, I calculate a fair price for Rodon to win at -135, making the current market consensus more than appealing.
Guardians vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Carlos Rodon to record the win
Aaron Judge 1+ RBI
We’re keeping today’s same-game parlay relatively straightforward. I expected to be punished a little more on this with a highly correlated play, but because we weren’t, I see value in the current number.
The Yankees are 19-9 when Judge records at least one RBI, and today, he’ll be in a great position to make that happen. Not only will the AL MVP frontrunner see a great pitch mix for his strengths, he’ll also have players around him who see the same. I made the fair price on him to record an RBI -107 so I’ll gladly grab the +105 price.
Guardians vs Yankees odds
Guardians vs Yankees live odds
Guardians vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Cleveland +150 | New York -185
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-135) | New York -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Guardians vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+8.52 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Yankees.
How to watch Guardians vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, 6-3-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | CLEG, YES |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Tanner Bibee (4-5, 3.86 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (7-3, 2.60 ERA) |
Guardians vs Yankees latest injuries
Guardians vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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