Guardians vs Yankees ALDS Game 5 Picks and Predictions: Cortes Won't Miss Cleveland's Bats

It’s do-or-die time for the Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees in the Bronx this afternoon with the ALDS tied up at 2-2. There are some uncertainties with how the pitching blueprint will go for both sides but the Yankees come in as comfortable -170 favorites vs. a Cleveland team that hasn’t lost back-to-back games since early September.

With leashes likely short today, there is value to be found in the starting pitching markets.

Here are my free MLB betting picks and predictions for Guardians vs. Yankees. For more statistical analysis, check out our Guardians vs. Yankees analytics preview.

Guardians vs Yankees best odds

Guardians vs Yankees picks and predictions

Nestor Cortes opened Game 2 with a strikeout total of 3.5 and was on 13 days of rest. Today, he's pitching on just three days of rest after starting Game 2 on Friday. His strikeout total sits at 4.5 despite a possible shorter leash.

Cortes wasn’t exceptional in his Game 2 start, either. He had just one clean inning of five and allowed at least two baserunners in three separate frames. He walked three batters and had just three punchouts. Now on short rest, the books are giving us a similar strikeout total in a game where his leash should be much shorter. 

Nestor Cortes on 3 days rest today. Shane Bieber… maybe.

Found a 2016 story that says since ‘95, postseason pitchers had started 121 games on 3-day rest, resulting in a 35-40 record & 4.35 ERA. I can’t imagine those numbers have changed much since 2016.#Guardians #ForTheLand

— Ed Greenberger (@EdGreenberger) October 18, 2022

The Guardians have already seen him, which is to their advantage, and with so much on the line, Aaron Boone could be even quicker to pull his starter if he struggles with command again. 

We also have the Guardians, who struck out at the lowest rate in baseball this season at 18.5%. 

Cortes is about a strikeout-per-inning guy but there is no way this K total should be the same as Game 2 while on short rest. Both projected starters could be done by the fourth inning. 

If I were setting this line, it would be 3.5 and -150 to the Under with all the uncertainties. 

My best bet: Nestor Cortes Under 4.5 strikeouts (-150 at FanDuel)

Guardians vs Yankees ALDS odds

Teams	Odds to win series
Cleveland Guardians	+150
New York Yankees	-164

Guardians vs Yankees moneyline analysis

After getting rained out last night, the deciding game of the ALDS will go this afternoon at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees had Jameson Taillon scheduled for last night but have changed things up and are going with Cortes today.

Cortes will be pitching on three days of rest and after a hard-fought five innings in Game 2. He'll likely have a 70-pitch leash and could hand things over to Taillon and the bullpen early.

Aaron Civale was penciled in as the Cleveland starter but after the re-schedule, manager Terry Francona had today’s starter as TBD. The decision will come down to Civale or ace Shane Bieber and both will likely factor in today. Most books have Civale as the starter but that could possibly change.

Bieber also pitched Game 2 and has looked like a former Cy Young winner so far in the postseason. However, it does seem like Francona is sticking with Civale, which is a big advantage in the early innings for the Yankees. 

Cleveland does have the advantage in late-inning pitching as its elite bullpen has a 1.23 ERA over 14-plus innings in the series. The Yankees pen has a 3.55 ERA in the series and completely melted down in the Cortes start with seven hits allowed and three runs. Taillon came in late in that game and failed to record an out while allowing three hits and two runs.

The series has been in the favor of the Yankees since Game 1 as the Guardians won Game 2 in extras on the road and used a three-run, five-hit ninth inning in Game 3 for their other win. This Cleveland team consistently finds ways to win in close contests. Its 28-17 SU record in one-run games was one of the best winning percentages in baseball this season. 

If Civale can escape and get six-to-nine outs, the advantage should move to the Guardians. The innings Bieber will get should be better than what the Yankees will out of their middle-inning arms.

New York was as short as -174 yesterday and has a similar price today, but getting Bieber involved in this game for multiple innings is worth 15-20 points the line hasn’t adjusted to.

The Guardians haven’t lost back-to-back games since September 4

Guardians vs Yankees Over/Under analysis

Yesterday, the total opened as high as 7.5 but was sitting at 7 closer to 7:00 p.m. ET. Now, with both teams’ pitchers getting a little more rest, we’re getting an opening total of 7, which I think should close at 6.5.

The total has closed at 6.5 or lower in two of the four games in the series and in Game 2, which featured Bieber and Cortes, closed at 6 at most books. We won’t see a full slate of 90 pitches from either Cortes or Bieber (likely in relief), but with a heavy and rested bullpen day, I’m all-in on the Under 7.

Francona will be quick to pull Civale if he falters and, to me, that’s the biggest fear with the Under. If Civale can be clean, the chance this stays Under 7 is very probable as both bullpens have been great in this series — excluding Taillon’s relief appearance. 

Neither offense has been hot, either. Aaron Judge is 2-for-16 with nine strikeouts. Oswaldo Cabrera was penciled in to play shortstop yesterday and is 2-for-15 in the series. The Guardians are not a big home run team and have three in the series with 13 runs over four games. 

In this deciding game, I’m expecting nothing but a close, low-scoring contest with all hands on deck in the bullpen.

Guardians vs Yankees trend to know

The Guardians are 8-0 in their last eight games following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Yankees

Guardians vs Yankees game info

Starting pitchers

Aaron Civale (5-6, 4.92 ERA): Civale is penciled in to start today although there have been whispers Shane Bieber could get the ball. The Guardians will likely open with Civale — who has yet to throw a pitch in these playoffs — and bring in Bieber shortly after. Civale is a K/IP guy but can also get in trouble with the long ball. 

Nestor Cortes (12-4, 2.44 ERA): Cortes will get his second start of the series thanks to yesterday's postponement. The lefty took a no-decision in Game 2 and wasn’t at his best. Walks have been an issue for the starter as he had three in Game 2 and has had at least two walks in five straight games. He allowed zero extra-base hits in the postseason start but still gave up six singles. 

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