The Detroit Tigers host the Cleveland Guardians in Game 4 of the ALDS at Comerica Park today. MLB odds have Cleveland as a slight -120 favorite, while the total sits at 6.5.
I’ve compiled my three best MLB player props for this clash. As always, make sure you keep an eye on the odds and available pricing due to the ever-changing nature of the player prop market.
Here are my free MLB picks in the player prop market for our Tigers and Guardians predictions on Thursday, October 10.
Guardians vs Tigers ALDS Game 4 props
- Tanner Bibee Under 3.5 hits allowed (-128 at Caesars)
- Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 hits (-109 at Caesars)
- Wenceel Perez Under 0.5 hits (+114 at Caesars)
Picks made on 10-9 at 11:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Guardians vs Tigers props
Prop bet #1: Tanner Bibee Under 3.5 hits allowed
Cleveland Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee is a great candidate to back in our Game 4 MLB picks. Through 31 starts, Bibee collected a 12-8 record with a 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
Analytically, he was just as strong. The right-hander ranked in the top half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
We are going to specifically back Bibee in the prop market. You can find his hits allowed prop at 3.5, which is where I want to go, considering the Detroit Tigers rank in the bottom seven of the league in batting average and wOBA. This Tigers team also featured a ton of swing-and-miss at the dish.
The Guardians haven't been shy about pulling the plug on their starters during this series, either. With the best bullpen in baseball waiting in the wings, it's unlikely any starter goes three full times through the order, further limiting Bibee's exposure and likelihood of surrendering hits.
Prop bet #2: Spencer Torkelson Under 0.5 hits
If we are backing Bibee to limit Detroit’s batters, then there should be some names we want to fade. Enter Spencer Torkelson, who possesses a .148 xBA through eight career plate appearances against Bibee.
Torkelson’s biggest weakness as a hitter is his ability to make contact, which is why I want to fade him in this market specifically. He hits the ball hard when he does make contact, but that seldom happens as the first baseman possesses a .219 BA and ranks in the 12th percentile or lower in both xwOBA and xBA.
Torkelson has gone hitless in four of his past five games and only played 92 games at the big-league level due to his struggles.
Prop bet #3: Wenceel Perez Under 0.5 hits
Sticking with the trend of fading poor contact hitters against Bibee, the other Detroit batter to target in the same market is Wenceel Perez, who ranks in the bottom third of the league in xwOBA, xBA, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Perez has gone hitless in two of the first three games of this series, a trend that is likely to continue against Bibee. Through eight career plate appearances against the right-hander, Perez owns a .125 BA and .098 xBA.
Regardless of how long Bibee is out there, we should also trust the bullpen that follows him. This season, Cleveland’s relief staff ranked first in MLB in both ERA and FIP.
Not intended for use in MA.
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