Michael Wacha and the San Diego Padres sit as -155 home favorites tonight vs. Aaron Civale and the light-hitting Cleveland Guardians, who dropped the opener last night 6-3.
With the Padres walking at the highest rate in baseball and Civale missing fewer bats this season, is betting Civale's strikeout prop Under the best way to approach this game from an MLB odds betting perspective?
Find out my thoughts with my best free MLB picks for Guardians vs. Padres on June 14.
Guardians vs Padres odds
Guardians vs Padres predictions
Aaron Civale has made two starts since returning from the IL thanks to an oblique injury. His strikeout prop sits at 4.5 tonight at decent odds to the Under and considering he is a pitch-to-contact pitcher with a short leash. Getting five punchouts vs. a San Diego Padres offense that doesn’t strike out much and walks at the highest rate in baseball is going to be tough.
Civale has yet to record five or more strikeouts since returning (two starts) and is a career 21% K% pitcher with a current strikeout rate of just 16.1% or 5.79 K/9. At that rate, the right-hander would need to see 31.25 batters to hit the Over 4.5 Ks and THE BAT is projecting 21.8 total batters faced.
The Cleveland Guardians starter is also getting more groundballs this year which is great news for double plays and the size of Petco Park could also help the righty record some outs in the field as opposed to the three-strike variety.
THE BAT is projecting 4.14 total strikeouts for Civale and the Under 4.5 -105 at Betway is implying 4.76, giving the Under significant expected value.
My best bet: Aaron Civale Under 4.5 strikeouts (-105 at Betway)
Guardians vs Padres same-game parlay
Civale U4.5 strikeouts
Wacha Over 17.5 outs
Under 8.5 runs
The Civale Under 4.5 strikeouts doesn't correlate to the Under but the Cleveland pitcher can minimize damage without needing punchouts and he has done so already this season.
Wacha is projected to record 18.6 outs vs. this weak Cleveland lineup in a great pitcher-friendly ballpark. Petco Park will also see some winds blowing in tonight which favors the Under.
On the season, this is a game between the two best Under teams in baseball as both clubs have hit the Under at just over 60%. The true odds are +496 but because of the correlation between the Under outs and full-game Under 8.5, bettors are getting a little worse number at +425 which isn't a bad multiplier thanks to the relationship between the plays.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Guardians vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
San Diego closed as a -165 home favorite last night in a pitching matchup that favored them substantially. Today, the home side opened at -140 and has moved 15 points shorter to -155. They have the advantage on the bump again and there is still some room for the home side to get shorter when compared to last night's closing odds.
Cleveland second baseman Andres Gimenez is still questionable after missing yesterday’s opener while the Padres could get DH Nelson Cruz back who was recently activated off the IL after missing two weeks with a hamstring injury.
Both teams have been getting great pitching from their set starters but Michael Wacha has been more impressive over a longer stretch with a near-1.00 ERA over his last seven starts. He hasn’t been getting much run support as the Friars are 4-3 SU over his dominating stretch. However, the right-hander has been sensational and faces a light-hitting Cleveland offense that ranks dead last in home runs/9, 28th in runs/9, and 27th in OPS.
The total has been all over the place as it opened at 8, hit 7.5 in places, and has gone as high as 8.5. The hitting conditions aren’t great at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park with winds blowing in and temperatures sitting in the mid-60s.
If bettors can get the 8.5 at -115 or better, the Under has some value. Both pitchers can limit home runs, neither offense is formidable despite being good on paper, and the environment also favors the Under.
This is also a game between the two best Under teams in baseball who are a combined 47-81-4 on the season.
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Trend to know
The Under is 8-1 in the Padres’ last nine Wednesday games. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs Padres
Guardians vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 14, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Great Lakes, SDPA |
Starting pitchers
Aaron Civale (2-1, 2.31 ERA): Civale has made two starts since coming off the IL and has allowed just two runs over 10-plus innings with a 7:4 K/BB ratio. He doesn’t have the longest leash (averaging 90 pitches per start) and doesn’t strike many out, but he throws strikes at a 67% rate, has a 19% strike-looking rate, and has yet to give up an extra-base hit to a right-handed hitter over 45 plate appearances this season. Cleveland is 2-2 SU in his starts this year and THE BAT projects 86 pitches, 15 outs, 4.14 strikeouts, and 3.12 earned runs.
Michael Wacha (6-2, 3.18 ERA): Wacha is enjoying a great season and has been even better of late with a 1.05 ERA over his last seven starts with a 41:13 K/BB ratio over 42.2 innings. He hasn’t been getting a lot of run support though and the Padres are 4-3 SU over this dominating seven-game stretch. THE BAT is projecting 99 pitches, 18.6 outs, 4.34 strikeouts, and 2.89 earned runs.
