The New York Mets return to Citi Field on Monday night, looking to get back on track as they open a series against the visiting Cleveland Guardians.
Neither lineup has been lighting it up lately, and with a strong pitching duel expected, I'm leaning toward the Under in my Guardians vs. Mets predictions.
Here’s how I’m betting this one, along with the rest of my MLB picks for Monday, August 4.
Guardians vs Mets prediction
My Guardians vs Mets best bet: Under 8 (+100 at Caesars)
The New York Mets have been a surprisingly average offensive team this season. For all its star power, New York is only putting up 4.39 runs per game, just under the league average. And while the 109 OPS+ suggests they’ve been a touch unlucky, that’s still not where the Mets expected their offense to be this season.
The Cleveland Guardians are near the bottom of the league in both runs scored (3.93 per game) and OPS (.679), and unlike the Mets, it’s easy to see why. Outside of Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, there’s not a lot of offensive talent here, with plenty of negative WAR position players getting playing time on the Cleveland roster.
Both offenses will face tough opposition tonight. The Mets are throwing Sean Manaea, who has given up exactly one run in each of his first four starts this year since returning from multiple injuries. Guardians starter Slade Cecconi hasn’t been quite as outstanding, but he's allowed three runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts.
Throw all these elements into the low-run scoring environment of Citi Field, and I’m expecting both offenses to struggle again tonight.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Guardians vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8
Mets -1.5
Sean Manaea Under 5.5 strikeouts
Going along with the Under, I’m also going to take the Mets to cover the run line in tonight’s game. New York should have a pitching advantage tonight, and the Mets have been extremely hard to beat at home, going 38-18 at Citi Field.
I’ll round out my SGP by taking the Under on Manaea’s strikeout total, as the Guardians aren’t a heavy strikeout team and Manaea hasn’t hit this total in either of his last two starts.
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Guardians vs Mets odds
Guardians vs Mets live odds
Guardians vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Cleveland +160 | New York -190
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-135) | New York -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Guardians vs Mets trend
The Guardians have cashed the Under in 24 of their last 39 away games (+8.65 units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Mets.
How to watch Guardians vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date | Monday, 8-4-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | CLEG, SNY |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Slade Cecconi (5-4, 3.77 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Sean Manaea (1-1, 2.08 ERA) |
Guardians vs Mets latest injuries
Guardians vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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