It’s rivalry time in L.A., as the San Francisco Giants (36-32) face the Los Angeles Dodgers (38-30) in a three-game weekend series that gets underway on Friday night.
The NL West standings are suddenly a bit closer, as the ice-cold Dodgers are just 2.5 games ahead of the red-hot Giants in second place.
The Dodgers have lost seven of their last 11 games to fall behind the Arizona Diamondbacks in the standings, and now must stem the bleeding to avoid the Giants (7-3 in their last 10 games) also passing them by.
Looking at the MLB odds for this matchup, I’m of the opinion that there’s value on the total, as both teams have questionable pitching situations.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Giants vs. Dodgers on Friday, June 16.
Giants vs Dodgers odds
Giants vs Dodgers predictions
The Dodgers will turn to rookie Emmet Sheehan, as they are dealing with plenty of starting pitching injuries. He’s a curious case study because he’s been fantastic in the minors this year (1.97 ERA, 41.7% K-rate) but has never pitched above the Double-A level, making this a substantial jump in competition for the 6-foot-5 right-hander. He’s the Dodgers’ No. 13 ranked prospect, per MLB Pipeline.
He faces a Giants lineup that has been absolutely crushing at the plate, posting a 132 wRC+ (second) and .365 wOBA (third) across the last 10 days. They have an impressive 125 wRC+ against righties during that stretch. John Brebbia will be the opener for the Giants and give way to Sean Manaea. The Dodgers have been destroying left-handed pitching lately with a 142 wRC+ (fourth) and .379 wOBA (also fourth) in the month of June.
Manaea has filled a few different roles this season, making six starts and 14 appearances overall. He’s been hit hard no matter which role he’s playing, surrendering a 5.56 xERA. His 13.2% barrel rate is one of the worst marks of any starting pitcher in the league and is the main cause of his complaints.
Weather is expected to play a factor as the current forecast calls for winds of 10.3 mph blowing out to right field at the time of first pitch. The entire game will not see sustained winds at that rate, however, as they are expected to die down to 5.8 mph by the later innings.
There’s reason to expect offensive output for both teams.
Sheehan’s Double-A stats may be impressive, but he’s making his MLB debut against a hot Giants lineup. There’s no telling how he’ll translate after not throwing a single pitch at the Triple-A level, and he has a worrisome bullpen (4.79 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) behind him.
Manaea has been a disaster in San Francisco and now faces off with a Dodgers lineup that has been crushing lefties lately. Giants games typically become high-scoring affairs when they use a bullpen game — they’re 5-0 O/U in Brebbia’s last five starts against the NL West.
I’ll take the Over in Game 1.
My best bet: Over 9 (EVEN at PointsBet)
Giants vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Over 8.5 Alternate Total Runs
Mookie Betts 2+ Total Bases
Freddie Freeman to Get a Hit
Giants moneyline
For the first leg of the SGP, we’re going to take the Over 8.5 alternate run line. I’ve outlined above why I like this side, and think there are numerous pathways in which it hits.
For the second leg, I’m targeting Mookie Betts to record 2+ total bases. This increases the odds of our SGP substantially, and I think it has a good chance of hitting considering Betts is hot and gets a favorable matchup.
He’s recorded 2+ total bases in five of his last eight games, so this has a better chance of cashing than the odds indicate, and I like this as a single bet as a well.
The third leg will feature Freddie Freeman to record at least once hit. He has 90 hits across 58 games this season overall and has been in excellent form. He’s failed to record a hit just six times since the start of May while being one of the most consistent players in any sport.
Lastly, we’ll take the Giants on the moneyline. This game could go either way, and we’re getting plus money on the team that is in better form. The Dodgers are sending out an inexperienced starter and have a terrible bullpen waiting in the wings, and they’re playing their worst baseball of the season to date.
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Giants vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Even with question marks about their starting pitcher and poor performance overall lately, the books see the Dodgers as the favorite. They’re currently listed between -135 and -146, depending on the book, so be sure to shop around.
The best comeback available on the Giants is currently +125. I’m inclined to think that there’s value with the away team in this spot.
They’ve performed fine on the road (18-15) and are in great form at the plate. They’ve won seven of their last 10 games for a reason and are playing their best baseball of 2023.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, are playing their worst baseball of the year and have yet to fix a shaky bullpen — a problem that’s been exacerbated by starting pitching injuries.
The Giants have won four straight overall, and are 8-2 in their last 10 during Game 1 of a series.
My best bet is the Over, so you know what I’m inclined to say about the total, which sits at a flat 9 across the board at current.
L.A. is 5-2-1 O/U in its last eight home games, while SF has gone 3-1 O/U in its last four overall.
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Trend to know
The Over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between these two teams in Los Angeles. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs Dodgers
Giants vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, June 16, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC-Bay Area, SNLA |
Starting pitchers
John Brebbia (2-0, 3.25 ERA): Brebbia is an opener that will only pitch an inning or two before giving way to Sean Manaea. Brebbia has allowed just a single earned run across his last 10 appearances. Manaea has an unseemly 5.52 ERA that is in line with his 5.56 xERA. He’s posting a career-high 28.2% K-rate but needs to cut down on his walks (9.9% BB-rate) and barrel rate (13.2%) to find success.
Emmet Sheehan (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The 23-year-old makes his MLB debut after posting strong numbers at Double-A Tulsa this season with a 1.86 ERA. He’s struck out 88 batters while issuing just 23 walks en route to a 3.21 FIP. He has terrific swing-and-miss stuff, as evidenced by his 41.7% K-rate, although it’s to be determined how he makes to transition to the Big Leagues after making just 12 starts above A+.
