Giants vs Dodgers Picks and Predictions: Fade Rodon and the Steam

The Giants pay a visit to Chavez Ravine tonight as they send ace Carlos Rodon to the mound to face the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers. We're taking the home squad to prevail yet again this season — read why in our Giants vs. Dodgers betting picks.

Josh Inglis - Betting Analyst at
Josh Inglis • Betting Analyst
Jul 21, 2022 • 14:45 ET • 4 min read
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The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers will open a four-game set at Dodger Stadium tonight as Carlos Rodon comes into the opener as a +120 underdog, while the Dodgers will counter with Mitch White.

Rodon closed as a +140 home favorite vs. the Dodgers last month, making this +120 moneyline appetizing at first glance, but there are some angles for the home side here in our free MLB picks and predictions for Giants vs. Dodgers tonight.

Giants vs Dodgers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Dodgers opened as short as -160, but lots of action on Rodon and the Giants has moved the moneyline to -130 in favor of Los Angeles. The total has also hit 7.5 after opening at 8.0. San Francisco is won three straight meetings between the two rivals, but the home side has won all five matchups this season.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Giants vs Dodgers predictions

Picks made on 7/21/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Giants vs Dodgers game info

Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Thursday, July 21, 2022
First pitch: 10:09 p.m. ET

Giants vs Dodgers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Carlos Rodon (8-5, 2.66 ERA): Rodon is currently sixth in NL Cy Young award odds. FanGraphs has Rodon pegged as the No. 2 pitcher (WAR) in baseball behind Sandy Alcantara, and he’s allowed one or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts. However, he missed the All-Star game with a split nail and a blood blister, which could be an issue today.

Mitch White (1-2, 4.20 ERA): White is still in the Dodgers' rotation despite a rough start before the break, allowing a season-high 10 hits and multiple home runs. The 27-year-old right-hander owned a 3.38 ERA before that start and will be asked to go through the order twice before turning things over to the Dodgers’ elite pen. He’s been better at home this season with a 3.60 ERA and above-average K/9 numbers.


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Giants are 0-5 SU in their last five games during Game 1 of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Dodgers

Giants vs Dodgers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The steam on the Giants and Carlos Rodon has picked up but might have gone too far. The Giants opened at +140 but saw plenty of love that moved the moneyline down to +110. Some might say that getting Rodon at plus money is a steal, but we’ve missed the boat on the better price, and Rodon’s finger issues aren’t something we don't want to steam chase on.

Rodon is dealing with a split fingernail and a blood blister on his pitching hand, and although he took some time off missing the All-Star game, these injuries can be a real issue during a game and could certainly affect his pitch count. THE BAT has him projected for 92 pitches which is below his average total. 

The San Francisco starter dealt with the injury in his last start versus the Brewers on July 14 and lasted just five innings. He also allowed an 11-game-high eight hits while walking three batters. THE BAT has him projected to get just 16 outs which would mean the Giants’ mediocre bullpen would need to get at least 11.

The Dodgers’ bullpen is likely to need to go four innings with Mitch White on the mound, but the difference between the bullpens is significant.

On the season, the Giants sit in the bottom-third in ERA, but they’ve been the third-worst unit in WAR over the last 30 days and have just four saves over that time. If this game is close heading into the sixth and both starters are out, the advantage certainly lies with the Dodgers. 

Rodon took the loss back in May when he met the Dodgers on the road as a +125 underdog. He managed just three strikeouts in that game and gave up three walks which could also be an issue. Of the Top 20 starters at FanGraphs, Rodon is just one of two who has a BB/9 above 3.00.

We need White to get some quality innings over his likely 18 batters. Considering he’s allowed just one or fewer runs in four of his last seven starts, he is more than capable of shutting down this overachieving San Francisco lineup. The Dodgers’ lineup is the best at creating runs in the National League and is also the better offensive team.

If Rodon’s finger injury means a shorter outing, getting the Dodgers at home at -130 after the earlier San Francisco steam is a solid price. 

PredictionDodgers moneyline (-130 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

This total has already moved from 8.0 to 7.5, and with a game that could see plenty of bullpen action, it’s always tough to gauge the total. However, coming out of the All-Star break, we’re expecting the hitters’ timing to be a little off.

The Midsummer Classic doesn't affect the pitchers and it also allows both bullpens to reset. Hitting is an extremely difficult thing to do and not seeing live pitching for three days is certainly a factor that can make things even more difficult.

Twitter user @TheJoshuaSharp also mentioned that over the last 20 seasons, 60% of first games following the ASG have come in Under the league scoring average, and 63% over the last 10 seasons.

Dodger Stadium is playing slightly above its average run-producing numbers, making this more of a lean than a play. With the Dodgers being one of the best pitching teams in baseball and batters likely to have some timing issues coming out of the break, we’re respecting the market movement on the Under here.

PredictionUnder 8 (-120 at bet365)

Best bet

Rodon might have had some extra time with his nail and blister issue, but we’ve seen plenty of times that it's difficult for pitchers to fully get over these issues. The injury is on one of his grip fingers, and with a guy who just throws fastballs and sliders, control could be an issue.

Rodon is too important to this team’s playoff chances, and if there is a chance that he could make things worse, his leash will be short. His bullpen is also fully rested and could shoulder the load. 

He’ll face a Dodgers’ offense that is a Top 5 unit and strikes out at a rate lower than the league average. They also walk at a high rate which could drive up Rodon’s pitch count as walks are an issue with the southpaw.

DraftKings is offering +115 for Rodon’s Under 6.5 strikeouts, which implies an estimate of roughly 7.20 Ks. A healthy Rodon finished with just three punchouts in his last outing at Dodger Stadium this season. 

Pick: Rodon Under 6.5 strikeouts (+115 at DraftKings)

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