We’ve got a heck of a ball game at the Friendly Confines as the Chicago Cubs host the San Francisco Giants.
Chicago has been known for scoring runs this season, while San Francisco has done its best work preventing them. But my Giants vs. Cubs predictions look at why starting pitching will be the difference for the home team.
Check out my MLB picks for this National League showdown with first pitch slated to go at 7:40 pm ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago, on Monday, May 5.
Giants vs Cubs prediction
My Giants vs Cubs best bet: Cubs -0.5 — first five innings (-115 at Caesars)
The records alone tell you this is a matchup of two of the best teams in the National League.
The San Francisco Giants head to Wrigley Field with a 22-13 record, thanks in large part to a pitching staff that ranks third in the league in expected FIP. But if they want to improve on that tonight, they’ll have to cool off the Chicago Cubs and their red-hot bats. The Cubs enter this game with an MLB-high 208 runs scored, leading them to the top of the NL Central at 21-14.
That will be a tough task for Giants starter Landen Roupp. The 26-year-old Roupp is in just his second big-league season and enters this game with a 5.01 ERA, but the right-hander has been better than that number suggests.
Roupp’s expected ERA sits at 3.30, and his opponent's expected batting average is .233. Both are in the 68th percentile. His sinker, curveball combo creates a lot of soft contact, ranking in the 86th percentile in average exit velocity and 96th percentile in hard-hit rate. Something you must do if you want to limit this Cubs lineup.
Speaking of that lineup. The Cubs enter this matchup also leading the majors in batting average while ranking second in OPS and third in wRC+.
Meanwhile, they counter Roupp with Matthew Boyd. The veteran left-hander hasn’t been as good as his 2.70 ERA, but his 3.59 xERA isn’t too shabby. Boyd has also evolved into a control pitcher who keeps hitters off balance.
And to be fair, the Giants have looked off balance at the plate for most of the season. San Francisco ranks 24th in batting average and 15th in OPS while also having the eighth-highest strikeout rate.
The Cubs, at the very least, match the Giants' starting pitching in this one, and their offense still remains on another level. For those reasons, let’s take the Cubbies to hold a lead through five innings on Monday night.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Giants vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs -0.5 — first five innings
Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 RBI
Matt Chapman Under 0.5 hits
Acquiring Kyle Tucker is arguably what has turned around this Cubs lineup. The three-time All-Star is the engine that makes this offense go.
He enters this game hitting .292 with a .975 OPS, nine home runs, and 30 RBIs. Against right-handed pitchers, those numbers jump up to .304 and .990. He’s driven in a run in five of his last six games, and I like his chances to drive in another one tonight.
Someone who isn’t having as fun a time this season is Giants’ third baseman Matt Chapman. Chapman is hitting below the Mendoza line at .198.
His slump over the last 14 games has been even worse, where his average is .122, and he has also struck out 17 times.
Chapman is also hitless with four strikeouts in six career at-bats against Boyd. I’m betting he puts up a donut in the hit column tonight. Something he has done eight times during this 14-game slide.
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Giants vs Cubs odds
Giants vs Cubs live odds
Giants vs Cubs opening odds
- Moneyline: San Francisco +125 | Chicago -150
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-170) | Chicago -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Giants vs Cubs trend
Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games for +8.50 Units and a 38% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Cubs.
How to watch Giants vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Monday, 5-5-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Bay Area, Marquee |
| Giants starting pitcher | TBD (X-X, X.XX ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Matthew Boyd (2-2, 2.70 ERA) |
Giants vs Cubs latest injuries
Giants vs Cubs weather
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