First MLB Manager Fired Odds: Jays Manager Has Wings Clipped?

Being a manager is a tough gig. Half the credit for the highs, all the blame for the lows. Some managers have a long leash, others feel their seats getting hotter with every passing loss and the MLB odds believe this year is an open market.

Mar 25, 2024 • 15:25 ET • 4 min read
John Schneider Toronto Blue Jays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The start of yet another MLB season is upon us and to quote the great Aristotle, "Hope is a waking dream." 

Thirty teams set out with one goal: to defy the World Series odds, be the last team standing in October, and shout out "World Series Champions" from the top of the highest mountain. 

For some, this dream is within reach. For others, achieving success is at the mercy of various things — luck, injury luck, and managerial decisions among others. While the players are largely (and rightfully) given the credit for success, having the right bench boss is imperative to maintaining consistency. 

Newly released MLB odds believe there are a handful of teams willing to part ways with an underachieving manager in hopes of turning their fortunes around. Join me as I break down the odds and offer my take on which manager will be the first to be shown his walking papers. 

First MLB manager fired odds

Manager Odds
Blue Jays John Schneider  +500
Cardinals Oliver Marmol  +700
Rockies Bud Black +900
White Sox Pedro Grifol  +1,000
Yankees Aaron Boone +1,000
Pirates Derek Shelton +1,200
Nationals Dave Martinez +1,200
Red Sox Alex Cora +1,400
Tigers A.J. Hinch +1,400
Marlins Skip Schumaker +1,600
Mariners Scott Servais +1,600
Athletics Mark Kotsay +1,800

Odds as of March 25, 2023.

First MLB manager fired

John Schneider (+500)

The Toronto Blue Jays appear stuck between a rock and a hard place and manager John Schneider may end up being the scapegoat. 

Not for a lack of trying, but his managerial skills and decision-making are often second-guessed. A case in point is removing a dealing Jose Berrios from a must-win game vs. the Minnesota Twins in the fourth inning. The Jays would go on to lose the game and get swept out of the playoffs. 

Now, while guys like George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette did little offensively to help the cause, the divide among Blue Jays fans about whether or not Schneider is the right man for the job appears to be lopsided. 

Most would love to get a fresh face in the dugout but doing so means hiring a third coach in six seasons. 

Whether he's the first to go this year or not will depend on a very top-heavy batting lineup, a decent enough rotation, and a questionable (as always) bullpen. Good luck, John. 

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Oliver Marmol (+500)

Whatever could go wrong for the St. Louis Cardinals last year did go wrong, and they couldn't quite play catch up to get themselves back into the playoff picture. 

They finished last in their division for the first time since 1990 and one quick glance at the pitching rotation paints the picture. They were among the worst in the league in runs allowed, hits allowed, opponent batting average, and team ERA, and while that's not entirely Oliver Marmol's fault, he'll need to figure out a way to get more from his guys. 

This will be Marmol's third season in charge of the Cardinals and for a franchise that's simply used to making the playoffs, anything short of that would be a failure. 

If the Cards find themselves behind the eight ball early, I wouldn't be shocked to see the team pull the plug on Marmol's tenure. 

Aaron Boone (+1,000)

Color me shocked that the New York Yankees did not fire Aaron Boone last year. 

Sure, there's the longstanding tradition of never firing a manager midseason, but the Yankees were so out of sorts, and the decision-making from the top down was in question more so than its feeble offense. 

Boone will need to find a way to deliver the goods in New York. He's got plenty of talent to work with and outside of Gerrit Cole (who will miss a week or two) a healthy roster eager to get going. 

Big picture: Anything short of the ALCS would be a failure for the Evil Empire. 

Short term: a .500 record in May could be the end of Boone. 

First MLB manager fired prediction

I'm going a bit off the board with this prediction, as I believe there is some serious value with Scott Servais at +1,600. 

This will be Servais' ninth season in charge of the Seattle Mariners and if you look at his track record, he's done nothing worth noting. He's yet to win the division, he's got one Wild Card series win to his name, and he owns a winning percentage of .516. 

That's not impressive by any stretch. 

He's got plenty of talent both at the plate and on the mound and if the Mariners can't bust out of the gates against the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Guardians, his seat will only get hotter. 

My best bet: Scott Servais — Seattle Mariners (+1,600)

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