Runs — or a lack thereof — is the theme of our MLB best bets for today, April 21.
Our MLB expert picks have found the best prices at Polymarket (which allows users coast-to-coast to get in on the baseball action), with a focus on pitching outlasting the wind in Wrigley, a slow start in Kansas City, and Atlanta continuing to roll with Reynaldo Lopez on the mound.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: CHC/PHI u8.5 |
+100 |
 Neil Parker: BAL/KC NRFI |
-104 |
 Joe Osborne: ATL ML |
-133 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Cubs/Phillies Under 8.5
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
The 10 mph wind blowing out may be driving some Over action at Wrigley Field, but I’m comfortable on the Under, which has a fair price around -150 and THE BAT projecting 7.79 total runs. Jesus Luzardo is not a 7.94 ERA pitcher and should get things back on track as an elite groundball + strikeout pitcher, while Shota Imanaga has allowed just six hits over his last 17 innings and will be backed by a Cubs bullpen with five LHPs — against a Phillies lineup that ranks last in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Orioles/Royals NRFI
Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket
The Orioles and Royals rank third and last in percentage of games scoring a run in the first inning, so even with the wind forecasted to be howling out at Kauffman Stadium, I’m expecting starters Shane Baz and Kris Bubic to post zeros in the opening frame. Baltimore hasn’t scored an opening-inning run on the road all season, and Kansas City is the lowest-scoring team in the opening frame for the year — and the second-lowest scoring team overall.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Braves moneyline
Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket
While both starting pitchers are off to respectable starts, these offenses are miles apart right now, and the Braves' bullpen has been lights out. Atlanta is 4-0 in Reynaldo Lopez’s starts, as he's allowed one earned run or fewer in three of them, and this matchup suits him against a Nationals lineup that ranks 28th in OPS vs. righties over the last two weeks. On the other side, Foster Griffin could struggle against a Braves team that's crushing left-handed pitching and is 6-1 when facing lefty starters.
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Giants ML | +155 |
| Read analysis in our Dodgers vs. Giants predictions | |
| Astros ML | +125 |
| Read analysis in our Astros vs. Guardians predictions | |
| Red Sox ML | -115 |
| Read analysis in our Yankees vs. Red Sox predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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