It's a shortened getaway-day baseball slate, but our MLB expert picks are thriving anyway.
The "Field of Dreams" game is back in heaven Iowa tonight, and we're favoring the Minnesota Twins over the Philadelphia Phillies.
Additionally, we're looking at the New York Yankees in a matinee matchup vs. the Seattle Mariners and more MLB picks on Thursday, Aug. 13.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: MIN ML |
+100 |
 Jon Metler: LAD ML |
-138 |
 Dustin Saracini: TOR +1.5 |
-122 |
 Joe Osborne: NYY ML |
-138 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Twins moneyline
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
The Minnesota Twins are slight 50-cent "home" underdogs for their "Field of Dreams" game in Iowa today at the new permanent Dyersville Stadium.
I know everyone thinks the Philadelphia Phillies are the better team on paper, but how they’re perceived and how they produce are two different things.
The Twins have the pitching edge, as lefties are hitting just .206 against Taj Bradley, while Aaron Nola could be vulnerable to the long ball with the low Iowa fences. No pitcher has allowed more home runs than Nola this year.
The Minnesota bullpen is also the better unit. The Phillies' pen has been overworked of late and is pitching to a 4.94 ERA over the last week, compared to 2.31 for Minnesota. There are also two very good sub-3.00 ERA lefties available to throw against this heavily left-handed Philly lineup.
In what is being priced as a near coin-flip, I have the Twins at around 53%-54% probability.
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Netflix
Jon Metler's expert pick: Dodgers moneyline
Price: 58¢ (-138) at Polymarket
This is straight-up appointment television.
We're looking at a potential NLCS matchup between the two top teams in the National League, but unfortunately, tonight's game could be a preview of how that series ultimately plays out.
I'm taking the Los Angeles Dodgers on the moneyline. They're trading at 58 cents on Polymarket, but this number should be closer to 60 cents.
Roki Sasaki has arguably been the Dodgers' best starting pitcher over the last month, and his swing-and-miss stuff should play extremely well against a Milwaukee Brewers lineup that wants to work counts, put the ball in play, and create pressure on the basepaths. That's a difficult approach to execute when you're facing a pitcher capable of taking the bat out of your hands and sending you back to the dugout via the strikeout.
Todd Cordell has a full breakdown of this game in his Brewers vs. Dodgers predictions.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Brewers.TV, SportsNet LA
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Blue Jays +1.5
Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket
Max Scherzer has a history of showing up in big games (look no further than last year's Game 7 of the World Series), and has actually been pretty serviceable for the Toronto Blue Jays as of late after struggling out of the gate.
The veteran has allowed just three earned runs across his last 11 1/3 innings pitched, and the stage might be the brightest of the season tonight as Toronto looks to sweep the Boston Red Sox and continue its ascent in the Wild Card standings.
He's looked good in this specific matchup, too, limiting Willson Contreras, Adley Rutschman, and Jarren Duran to a .165 xBA or worse across 25 combined at-bats. The Jays have won 10 of their last 14 games, and the offense has scored five or more runs in five of their last six.
I'm a buyer at 55 cents as a result.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NESN, Sportsnet
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Yankees moneyline
Price: 58¢ (-138) at Polymarket
The New York Yankees are available at a very fair price at home today with Max Fried on the mound, especially considering the state of their opponent.
Fried has been excellent since returning to action, allowing one run or fewer in three of his last four starts. While Seattle Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert has been solid, New York holds a major edge in the recent form of both its offense and bullpen.
Over the past week, the Yankees rank eighth in OPS compared to 26th for the Seattle, while their bullpen ranks fourth in ERA compared to 29th for the Mariners. Seattle has now lost six straight and 15 of its last 20 games in what's been a disaster of a second half.
For a comprehensive look at this matinee clash, Phil Naessens has you covered with his Mariners vs. Yankees predictions.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Mariners.TV, YES
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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