There are only five games on the slate today, but that hasn't stopped our betting experts from digging into the slate to provide you with their favorite MLB picks.
Find out what you need to add to your betting card on July 23.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: Rays ML |
+100 |
 Jason Wilson: Diamondbacks/Cardinals - Over 8.5 |
+138 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Rays moneyline
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
I'm fading the Toronto Blue Jays as much as I can.
Both clubs are in getaway spots, but the Tampa Bay Rays have a chance to complete the four-game sweep and have won eight of the last nine meetings. Ian Seymour is the reason Toronto is favored, but I'm not giving Shane Bieber a free pass after one good start.
Bieber has been one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball this season, ranking in the Bottom 10 among qualified starters in HR/9 and HR/FB while sitting dead last in both xERA and BlastContact%. His overall numbers remain ugly despite a solid outing last time out.
The last time I checked, you need to score runs to win games, and Toronto has been the worst team in baseball at doing so all season. The Blue Jays have scored just 10 runs in six games since the All-Star break, with their only win in that stretch coming in a 1-0 game against the White Sox.
They've also been outscored 23-5 through the first three games of this series while committing six errors. Tampa should be favored here, just like yesterday
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Sportsnet, Rays.TV
Jason Wilson's expert pick: Diamondbacks/Cardinals - Over 8.5
Price: 42¢ (+138) at Polymarket
Brandon Pfaadt and Michael McGreevy are two starters whose underlying metrics ring all sorts of alarm bells.
Pfaadt was demoted to the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen and Triple-A this season, and hasn't missed any bats when at the big-league level.
McGreevy, for all his success, is a ticking time bomb with an expected ERA (5.35) almost 2.5 runs higher than his actual ERA (2.92). Both pitchers get barreled at a high rate, with the only real positives under the hood being their ability to limit walks.
But that also tells us they both live in the zone, and that's where the damage gets done. The Diamondbacks have also owned baseball's hottest offense over the last two weeks, scoring 66 runs in their last 10 games while slugging .478.
I don't trust McGreevy to weather that storm. If he somehow avoids the worst of it, the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen has shown it cannot hold the line.
And even if St. Louis' lineup has gone in the complete opposite direction in that time, Pfaadt is the guy to help turn that around. Trust in Jordan Walker's 100th-percentile bat speed.
- Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Diamondbacks.TV, Cardinals.TV
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Braves -1.5 | -126 |
| Read analysis in our Padres vs. Braves predictions | |
| Guardians ML | -140 |
| Read analysis in our Twins vs. Guardians predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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