The weekend has arrived, and so have our MLB expert picks!
See why the Diamondbacks will roll over the Reds, and much more, on Friday, Aug. 21.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jon Metler: CHC ML |
-104 |
 Dustin Saracini: TB ML |
+113 |
 Joe Osborne: ARZ -1.5 |
+150 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Jon Metler's expert pick: Cubs moneyline
Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket
Matthew Boyd has struggled of late, allowing four home runs and seven earned runs in his last outing. But that poor performance may be exactly why we're getting an opportunity in the market, and I think the matchup at T-Mobile Park sets up well for a bounce-back start.
Boyd is a fly-ball pitcher, which can make him vulnerable depending on the ballpark and weather conditions. T-Mobile Park is an ideal setting for him, as the marine layer can limit the carry on fly balls and help mitigate his biggest weakness.
His overall numbers haven't been great this season, but many of his struggles have come at Wrigley Field. On the road, Boyd has posted a 2.57 ERA while allowing just two home runs, compared to 11 at Wrigley.
The Cubs are trading at 51 cents on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 54-cent favorite, giving us an edge at the current price.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: MARQ, Mariners.TV
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Rays moneyline
Price: 47¢ (+113) at Polymarket
The Rays have lost five of their last seven games, but are in a prime bounce-back spot as underdogs against Trevor Rogers and the Baltimore Orioles on the road.
Yandy Diaz (7-for-13, .591 xSLG), Junior Caminero (3-for-10, .278 xBA), and Ryan Vilade (4-for-4, HR) have all had their way against Rogers, who's coughed up a homer in each of his last three starts.
Going for the Rays is Freddy Peralta, who's striking this Orioles team out at a 26% clip across 53 at-bats, a sample size we can get behind.
With a heavy right-handed hitting lineup expected to be deployed for Tampa, they'll win this one outright. Play up to 50 cents at Polymarket.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Apple TV
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Diamondbacks -1.5
Price: 40¢ (+150) at Polymarket
There’s an incredible amount of data pointing toward Arizona winning this game comfortably.
Over the past month, the Diamondbacks rank first in home OPS, while the Reds sit at 27th on the road. Both teams will start left-handers, which creates another massive edge for Arizona. The D-backs rank second in OPS against lefties during that span, compared to 28th for Cincinnati. Eduardo Rodriguez also owns an ERA nearly two runs lower than Nick Lodolo, and the Reds’ bullpen has been one of baseball’s worst in recent weeks. Cincinnati is just 4-10 in Lodolo’s starts.
Add it all up, and Arizona is worthy of a plus-money runline wager.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Reds.TV, DBacks.TV
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| PIT ML | +206 |
| Read analysis in our Pirates vs. Dodgers predictions | |
| SF/BOS o7.5 | +105 |
| Read analysis in our Giants vs. Red Sox predictions | |
| MIL ML | -140 |
| Read analysis in our Braves vs. Brewers predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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