With every Divisional Series wrapped except for one, our MLB expert picks for Thursday, Oct. 8, offer a super-sized send-up of Game 4 between the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians.
While two of our analysts expect Cleveland to even the series at two games apiece, others are bullish on Chicago's offense against Parker Messick.
Guardians vs White Sox expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: o7.5 |
48% |
 Jon Metler: CLE ML |
52% |
 Neil Parker: Parker Messick o1.5 ER |
54% |
 Joe Osborne: CLE ML |
52% |
 Dustin Saracini: Munetaka Murakami 2+ TB |
35% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Over 7.5
Price: 48¢ at Polymarket
I'll run this to 53%.
The Chicago White Sox have already seen Parker Messick in this series and saddled him with the loss in Game 1. He's also pitched more than 190 innings this year, which is 70 more than last season, so his leash should be shorter than usual. He'll eventually give way to a bullpen that the White Sox have already seen plenty of.
The Cleveland Guardians got the bats going yesterday and should be hitting with confidence. Hagen Smith will open, and it will be his third appearance of the series, which only helps Cleveland. Erick Fedde is expected to handle the bulk of the work, and that sounds like runs.
The longer this series goes, and the less teams are willing to give starters big innings, the more the edge shifts to the bats and familiarity
Jon Metler's expert pick: Guardians moneyline
Price: 52¢ at Polymarket
I’ll take the Guardians as a 52% favorite, as I price them closer to 55% against the White Sox in Game 4 of the ALDS.
When I saw the matchup was Messick against Fedde (carrying the bulk load behind Smith), I expected the rookie southpaw to give Cleveland a clearer edge. However, the tight line speaks to just how popular the White Sox are right now and how badly people want to see them advance.
Both starters will likely have short leashes, but Messick holds a significant advantage in swing-and-miss ability. I have no interest in backing Fedde, who relies on contact to generate outs, against a Guardians lineup that just scored nine runs in Game 3.
Putting the ball in play is exactly what Cleveland does best
Neil Parker's expert pick: Parker Messick Over 1.5 earned runs
Price: Trade at Polymarket
Facing Messick for the second time this series — and sixth time this season — the White Sox lineup will find success at the dish, thanks to their sixth-ranked wOBA and MLB-leading ISO vs. left-handers.
Messick also skidded down the stretch with a 4.14 xERA and 3.38 xFIP well above his 2.87 ERA over his final six starts, and manager Stephen Vogt will likely lean on the lefty to pitch as deep as possible in Game 4, exposing him to more opportunities to cough up an extra run or two.
Neil also explains why he likes Chicago on the moneyline (running counter to some of his peers) in his Guardians vs. White Sox predictions.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Guardians moneyline
Price: 52¢ at Polymarket
After a rusty start, Cleveland’s offense exploded for nine runs on Wednesday, piling up 11 hits and 10 walks.
I expect that momentum to carry into tonight against another White Sox bullpen game after Chicago burned through seven arms in Game 3. That approach might finally be backfiring.
It’s also easy to get behind Messick, who posted a 2.56 regular-season ERA and allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his five starts against Chicago this year, including Game 1.
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Munetaka Murakami 2+ total bases
Price: 35¢ at Polymarket
I'd play this to 37%. There's not much wiggle room with Munetaka Murakami carrying just a .577 OPS in the postseason.
However, tonight could be the night he breaks out. For one, he absolutely loves what Messick is putting down. He went 2-for-4 with a home run against him in Game 1, and is 3-for-6 (.421 xBA) with two bombs overall in the matchup.
Two, Messick throws his four-seamer over 40% of the time, a pitch Murakami sits on. Twenty-one of his 34 home runs this season came against the offering. If the White Sox win tonight, Murakami will have something to do with it.
How to watch Guardians vs White Sox and game info
| Location | Rate Field, Chicago, Ill. |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Parker Messick (12-9, 2.56 ERA) |
| White Sox starting pitcher | Hagen Smith (3-3, 1.29 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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