It’s been 12 weeks since the Los Angels Dodgers (62-45) and San Diego Padres (54-55) last met. The stage is set for their reunion in a four-game series that gets underway on Friday night.
The Padres will be looking to get to .500 — and ideally above it — for the first time in quite a while. Notching a series win would be symbolic, as they haven’t been above .500 since the Dodgers swept them back in May.
At 54-55, a win in Game 1 would even them at .500 for the first time in nearly two months.
I’ve got a MLB player prop circled as my best bet for Game 1. Check out what that is in my full MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Padres on Friday, August 4.
Dodgers vs Padres odds
Dodgers vs Padres predictions
For Friday’s best bet, we’re going to target Dodgers starting pitcher Bobby Miller.
After a hot start to his rookie season, the former first-round pick has struggled in his last seven efforts. He’s surrendered a 6.63 ERA in that span while allowing 27 runs across 36 2/3 innings.
He’s come crashing down to Earth after sporting a cool 0.78 ERA across his first four starts. It’s evident that the right-hander is experiencing some growing pains, which is natural for a rookie.
The thing is, I wouldn’t want to be experiencing growing pains or going through a rough patch and then face a red-hot San Diego Padres lineup. The wobbling Miller is trying to find stability against an order in arguably its best form of the season.
San Diego has been crushing at the plate, posting a 125 wRC+ and .353 wOBA across its last 10 games. The Friars have been prolific at the dish for a while now at Petco Park, posting a 125 wRC+, .351 wOBA, and .818 OPS since the start of July.
This lineup always possessed talent but had yet to put it all together in 2023. It appears that the Padres are doing just that now, as Fernando Tatis Jr. just belted his 100th career home run, Juan Soto has reached base a whopping 15 times in his last six games, Xander Bogaerts is fresh off a three-hit game, Jake Cronenworth has five multi-hit games in his last six outings, and Manny Machado has collected a hit in eight of his last nine overall.
Miller’s Earned Runs Allowed prop is set at 2.5 for Friday’s contest. He’s gone over that mark in six of his last seven games, and therefore I consider it a bargain at EVEN on the Over.
My best bet: Bobby Miller Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (EVEN)
Dodgers vs Padres same-game parlay
Miller o2.5 earned runs allowed
Padres o4.5 team total
Padres moneyline
This three-legger is centered around my best bet on Miller’s earned run prop, as outlined above in the best bet section.
The first play that I will add to that will be the Padres to go Over their alternate team total of 4.5. If they’re going to do damage against Miller, it’s likely that they’d exceed this mark. The Dodgers’ bullpen hasn’t been particularly fearsome (4.12 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), and the home team could continue to add runs throughout the nine innings scheduled for Friday night.
The third and final leg will be the Padres on the moneyline. If they’re scoring at least five runs, then I think it’s highly likely they win the ballgame outright.
Starting pitcher Yu Darvish was on the mound for San Diego’s only win over L.A. this season, back on May 5. In what’s been a down season relative to expectations, the Padres have finally found some success recently with 10 wins in their last 15 games. I like them to stay hot in general with Darvish on the mound to help break the spell for this matchup.
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Dodgers vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Padres are a slight favorite of -120 at most books, although -110 is available on both sides depending on where you look. The best comeback currently available on the Dodgers is +110. Be sure to shop around using our MLB odds tool to ensure you grab the best price available before placing your wager.
The series has been completely dominated by L.A. across the last decade and change — San Diego hasn’t won a regular-season series against its NL West rivals since 2010.
That being said, this is a four-game series and a lot can happen down the road — but I give San Diego the pitching edge. Darvish has found success against his former ballclub, recording a career 2.36 ERA. Miller’s ERA is near 7.00 in his last seven starts.
San Diego also has the bullpen advantage, notching a 3.76 ERA in relief. That is nearly a half-run lower than L.A.’s 4.12 ERA.
I actually make it a wash at the plate considering both lineups are stacked with talent. The Dodgers have hit better over the length of a full season, but San Diego is on a torrid run at the dish and has been smacking the ball at Petco for over a month now.
The total is set at 8.5 across most books, but 8 is also available. These two teams have combined to go 2-7-1 O/U across their last 10 meetings.
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Trend to know
Miller has allowed at least three earned runs in six of his last seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres
Dodgers vs Padres game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, August 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
Spectrum SportsNet LA, Spectrum San Diego |
Starting pitchers
Bobby Miller (6-2, 4.37 ERA): Miller has hit a rough patch in his rookie season, allowing at least three earned runs in six of his last seven starts. That being said, the 24-year-old’s 3.56 xERA and 3.61 FIP are both reasons to expect a return to form, and most projection systems call for an ERA in the upper 3.90s or low 4.00s. His statcast numbers are impressive, as he ranks in the 98th percentile in fastball velocity, 71st percentile in xSLG, and 72nd percentile in xERA/xwOBA.
Yu Darvish (8-7, 4.53 ERA): Darvish has allowed just a single combined earned run in three of his last four starts (18 innings), but sandwiched in between those sterling outings in a blowup in which he surrendered seven earned and four home runs to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The 36-year-old’s 3.66 xERA and 4.11 FIP are both lower than his actual ERA, and he’s been better at home (4.24 ERA) than on the road (4.86 ERA).
