The Boston Red Sox (-160) will send Payton Tolle to the mound as they look to complete a sweep over the Arizona Diamondbacks this afternoon.
Tolle has allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, and he's a key factor in why I'm backing the home team with my Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks.
Who will win Diamondbacks vs Red Sox today: Boston Red Sox (-160)
The Boston Red Sox lead the majors in wOBA, OPS, and runs scored against right-handed pitching in August.
They’ll need to contend with a quality arm in Brandon Pfaadt, but a 4.74 SIERA indicates he’s not nearly as untouchable as his 0.54 ERA over the past month seems to show.
Payton Tolle leads all projected starters with a 2.51 SIERA during that time. The absence of Ketel Marte, and Nolan Arenado being banged up, will help Tolle limit the damage against a strong left-handed hitting Arizona Diamondbacks team.
Back the Red Sox to -165.
COVERS INTEL: Pfaadt's ninth percentile strikeout rate will lead to a lot of contact against a Red Sox team sitting second in line-drive rate vs. righties in August.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-110)
Pfaadt hasn’t allowed a home run since June 30, and he's only conceded multiple dingers in his first appearance of the season. His ability to limit power – aided by an 82nd-percentile ground-ball rate – helps him avoid blowup innings while keeping runs to a minimum.
Tolle posted an xERA below 3.0 in six of his last seven starts, including against quality offenses like what the Dodgers and White Sox field. He’s in excellent form, and the Diamondbacks missing Marte, their most powerful bat against lefties, will make Tolle's life easier.
Runs should be hard to come by, making the Under a bet to -120.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox home run prediction: Wilyer Abreu (+400)
Wilyer Abreu is seeing the ball very well. Isolating Pfaadt’s pitch mix, Abreu is hitting .345 with a .379 ISO and leading the Red Sox in barrel rate over the last 15 games.
He's hit at least eight balls 350-plus feet during that span, more than double any other teammate.
Pfaadt has been more susceptible to conceding homers against powerful offenses, allowing 1.61 HR/9 when facing top-10 teams in OPS vs. righties over the last 20 games.
The Red Sox rank first in that regard, and Abreu has been driving the bus. Bet this to +375.
- ML/RL bets: 83-76, -10.40 units
- Over/Under bets: 84-69-6, +4.52 units
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox weather
Temperatures in the mid-80s are expected with some wind blowing out. There will be favorable hitting conditions.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +140 | Red Sox -160
- Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-145) | Red Sox -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-105) | Under 8.0 (-115)
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox trend
Boston has hit the moneyline in 37 of the last 50 games (+19.30 units, 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Wednesday, Aug. 19, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, DBACKS.TV |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Brandon Pfaadt (7-1, 3.11 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Payton Tolle (8-6, 2.97 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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