Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Miller & Co. Knot Series Up

The Dodgers offense fell flat in Game 1 but looked much better as the game went on. With Bobby Miller taking the mound for Game 2 and the bats expected to produce against Zac Gallen, our MLB picks like L.A.'s chances of knotting up the series.

Kenny Ducey - Betting Analyst at Covers
Kenny Ducey • Betting Analyst
Oct 9, 2023 • 19:21 ET • 4 min read
Bobby Miller Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Following a deflating defeat at the hands of Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Los Angeles Dodgers are determined to regroup and level this NLDS series at one game apiece.

Will promising youngster Bobby Miller deliver a stellar performance for the home favorites, or could we witness another MLB odds upset with Zac Gallen taking the mound for Arizona?

Let's dive right into my MLB playoff predictions with our in-depth preview and free MLB picks for Game 2 of the Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers series.

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Game 2 odds

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers series odds

Team DraftKings FanDuel bet365 Caesars BetMGM
Blue Jays Diamondbacks -155 -158 -140 -145 -150
Blue Jays Dodgers +130 +128 +120 +120 +125

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers predictions

I’m not ready to overreact to one game here with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The fact remains the Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball, checking in at fourth in barrels per plate appearance for the season and second in xwOBA. That solidifies their second-place finish in isolated power and OPS, and it shouldn’t be long before the offense starts to produce.

They had about a week off before playing the Arizona Diamondbacks and it’s possible we just saw some rust out there. By the third time through the order, the at-bats got a lot better.

So, with an edge here in the pitching matchup, I love the Dodgers in this spot. Bobby Miller has gotten better with every month in the Big Leagues, getting his ground ball rate up to around 50% in the last two months and striking out nearly 29% of hitters in September.

He finished with a .230 xBA and 3.45 xERA, and most importantly, he hasn’t been burned by the home run. Arizona has hit a lot of home runs through three postseason games, but should run into some resistance here.

Digging deeper into the numbers, it's evident there are some concerning signs with Zac Gallen. His hard-hit rate sits at a poor 46.2% and coupled with a fly ball rate exceeding the league average by three points, his barrel rate has surged to a worrisome 9.2%.

All of this culminates in a .253 expected batting average and a 4.18 expected ERA which — while not terrible — fell short of the impressive performance we witnessed from Gallen last year.

An intriguing narrative to monitor here revolves around Gallen's two challenging outings against the Dodgers that marked the beginning and end of his season. He kicked off the year by surrendering five runs on six hits and three walks against L.A. in March. To cap it off, he allowed six runs on three walks and nine hits, including four homers, against the same formidable side.

With Gallen’s struggles against the Dodgers and an improving offense, I think Miller should have plenty of run support to lead his team to victory.

My best bet: Dodgers moneyline (-160 at BetMGM)

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Diamondbacks vs Dodgers same-game parlay

Dodgers ML (-164)

Bobby Miller to record 4+ strikeouts (-440)

Will Smith to record 1+ hits (-230)

Lourdes Guerriel to record 1+ hits (-195)

For this same-game parlay, I’m going to play it a little more conservatively with each leg and add an extra one to get the odds up into a good spot.

Miller struck out four Diamondbacks the last time these two teams met, and he’s now hit the number in 10 straight outings. I think the Dodgers will let Miller own this start, but regardless of whether or not they pull him early, I think he’ll rack up four Ks with ease. He had arguably his most impressive strikeout month yet in September and should carry that over into October.

Then, I’m going to go with a pair of guys to get hits. Both have excellent numbers against their respective pitchers; Smith is a .300 hitter against Gallen which is head and shoulders above most of his teammates, while Gurriel is a .400 hitter against Miller this year in six plate appearances.

I think those two should continue to provide some offense, but Miller and the Dodgers should own the night.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Diamondbacks vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

It’s pretty hard to sit here and say Miller will shove and the Over will cash. The fact of the matter is Gallen is a wonderful talent in his own right, and while he hasn’t exactly had the season we expected, he’s still a solid pitcher with above-average numbers.

The Dodgers, too, are an improving offense at the plate as I see it but it’s still hard to count on them to explode after the way they came out of the gates in Game 1.

This would lead me to lean towards the Under, alongside many of the sharp bettors. While 39% of the bets here are on the Under over at DraftKings, it’s commanded a strong 51% of the cash. A hefty 57% of the bets are on the Dodgers here and they account for 64% of the handle.

Trend to know

The Diamondbacks have hit gone Under the total in 51 of their last 92 games (+11.05 units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers

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Diamondbacks vs Dodgers game info

Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Monday, October 9, 2023
First pitch: 9:07 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers

Zac Gallen (1-0 6.00 ERA): The Arizona ace is coming off of a September where he posted a 4.17 ERA in six starts. He finished up with just two earned runs over his final two starts against the Yankees and Astros.

Bobby Miller (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The wunderkind wrapped up his first season in the Big Leagues with an ERA just a hair over 3.00 between September and October. He struck out 36 in 32 2/3 innings last month and has allowed just 12 home runs this season. =

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