This NL series continues on Friday evening with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks at American Family Field. MLB odds have Arizona as a -120 favorite, while the total sits at 8.
My Diamondbacks vs. Brewers predictions are bullish on the favorite, as my MLB picks believe they have the better lineup and the better starting pitcher on Friday, September 20.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Diamondbacks -1.5 (+140 at bet365)
My analysis
The Arizona Diamondbacks possess one of the best lineups in baseball this season. Arizona ranks in the Top 2 in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS.
They outrank the Milwaukee Brewers in each of those categories.
This success at the dish is likely to continue against right-hander Colin Rea, who gets the ball for Milwaukee. Through 29 appearances on the mound this season, Rea possesses a 4.14 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even more concerning, considering that the right-hander owns a 4.92 xERA and ranks in the Bottom 25% of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. These woes are likely to continue against the Diamondbacks, a team Rea possesses a 7.20 ERA against through two career meetings.
Meanwhile, Arizona hands the ball to right-hander Zac Gallen. The former third-round pick outranks Rea in ERA, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Finally, 15 of the D-Backs’ past 17 wins have come by at least a two-run margin, so I have no qualms about heading to the run line tonight rather than the moneyline.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Diamondbacks -1.5
Zac Gallen Over 5.5 strikeouts
Joc Pederson Over 0.5 hits
I am also going to back Gallen in the prop market as he ranks in the top half of the league in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates. Through 69 combined career plate appearances against Gallen, this current Brewers lineup possesses a 27.5% strikeout rate and a 28.8% whiff rate.
Joc Pederson boasts a .379 xBA through 11 career plate appearances against Rea and has recorded a hit in nine of his past 13 games, so I'll add him to get a knock tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers odds
Diamondbacks vs Brewers live odds
Diamondbacks vs Brewers opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona -125 | Milwaukee +105
- Run line: Arizona -1.5 (+135) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Diamondbacks vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Arizona opened as a -125 favorite and remains at that price as of Friday morning.
- I project this line to widen, given that the D-Backs outrank the Brewers in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and home runs.
- The total opened at 7.5 and has since been bet up to 8.
- This line movement makes sense, considering that both lineups rank in the top half of the league in each of those aforementioned categories.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers trend
Fifteen of the D-Backs’ past 17 wins have come by at least two runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Brewers.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Friday, 9-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ARID, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Zac Gallen (12-6, 3.61 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Colin Rea (12-5, 4.14 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Brewers weather
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