Diamondbacks vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: Brandon Woodruff Answers the Call

In desperate need of a victory to keep their playoff hopes alive, the Brewers are sending an in-form Brandon Woodruff to the mound. He's been fanning batters at a dominant rate and we expect that to continue tonight.

Last Updated: Oct 3, 2022 10:41 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Brandon Woodruff Milwaukee Brewers MLB
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We have the first matchup of this final three-game series with the NL Central’s Milwaukee Brewers hosting the NL West’s Arizona Diamondbacks. Milwaukee's season is on the line with a loss or a Phillies win eliminating them from playoff contention.

Will the Brewers extend their season for one more day, or can the D-backs pull off the victory as a road underdog? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Diamondbacks vs Brewers on Monday, October 3.

Diamondbacks vs Brewers best odds

Diamondbacks vs Brewers picks and predictions

Right-hander Brandon Woodruff is taking the mound for Arizona and should be a good candidate to back in this game, particularly in the strikeout department. Through 26 starts this season, Woodruff is 13-4 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. 

Entering this game in particularly good form, he is 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over his last four starts. Across those four outings, Woodruff has amassed at least 10 strikeouts in each start, shifting his strikeout rate north of 30.6% (!) this season.

The guy is on fire and has tried to single-handedly keep the Brewers’ season afloat. We should expect this strong stretch of pitching to continue against Arizona with the season on the line, a team that he has collected at least nine strikeouts against in two of his last three appearances.

Since September 1, the Diamondbacks rank just 19th in the league in K rate when facing right-handed pitching. Looking at tonight’s projected starting lineup, six of Arizona’s nine hitters possess a K rate north of 20%.

Through 46 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current D-backs roster possesses a troubling 26.1 K rate and 23.4 whiff percentage.

As mentioned in the intro, Milwaukee’s season is on the line in this matchup, and we should expect the best from one of the few guys who has kept the Brewers in the Wild Card hunt.

My best bet: Brandon Woodruff Over 8.5 strikeouts (-104)

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Diamondbacks vs Brewers moneyline analysis

I would lean towards the Brewers’ run line in this contest but am not confident enough to pull the trigger. While I expect Woodruff to throw a gem, I do not trust Milwaukee’s lineup at all.

I'm from Milwaukee and am a lifelong Brewers fan, so let me tell you first-hand that this team is absolutely imploding right now. When it has mattered most, the bats have gone silent as they have scored three or fewer runs in six of their last seven games and have lost five of those contests.

Taking the mound for Arizona is left-hander Tommy Henry. Since August 1, Milwaukee ranks just 24th in the league in BA, 23rd in SLG, 19th in OPS, and 19th in wOBA when facing left-handed pitching.

The Brewers have never faced Henry before, and it could take a few rotations through the batting order to figure him out. I still think the Brewers will win this game because of Woodruff, but no way am I laying over two dollars on the moneyline or taking the run line.

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Over/Under analysis

As you can probably guess by now, I would lean towards taking the Under in this game. Woodruff has been lights out while Milwaukee’s lineup has been fade-worthy. 

So why not take the Under? First of all, Henry has been awful on the mound for Arizona.

It has been a forgettable year for the rookie left-hander, who is 3-4 with a 5.98 ERA and 1.57 WHIP through eight starts. His last three starts have been particularly disastrous, going 0-2 with an 11.77 ERA and 2.23 WHIP.

Additionally, both bullpens are terrible as each relief staff ranks in the bottom half of the league since August 1 in ERA, SLG, and wOBA. Woodruff is the only guy I trust between each of these two rosters, so I do not want to mess with the total.

Diamondbacks vs Brewers trend to know

Brandon Woodruff has gone over his strikeout total in each of his last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Brewers

Diamondbacks vs Brewers game info

Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Date: Monday, October 3, 2022
First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Arizona, Bally Sports Wisconsin

Starting pitchers

Tommy Henry (3-4, 5.98 ERA): It has been a forgettable campaign for the rookie left-hander, particularly recently. Over his last three starts, Henry is 0-2 with an 11.77 ERA and 2.23 WHIP. Allowing six home runs over his last nine innings pitched, he has struggled mightily with keeping the ball in the park. While he possesses a four-pitch arsenal, Henry heavily relies on his fastball as he throws it 55.7% of the time. The problem with this trend is that hitters are posting .511 SLG against that pitch.

Brandon Woodruff (13-4, 3.05 ERA): Making his 27th start on the mound for the Brewers this year, the right-hander will look to continue his dominant pitching. Over Woodruff’s last four starts, he is 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Across those four outings, he has collected 42 strikeouts. Boasting a five-pitch arsenal, Woodruff does a tremendous job of mixing his pitches to keep hitters honest.

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