Cubs vs Rays Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

After coughing up a late lead at Tropicana Field last night, Chicago is in good hands to bounce back when right-hander Javier Assad takes the bump. Find out why in Neil Parker's expert handicap for Cubs vs. Rays.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Jun 12, 2024 • 13:13 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays play Game 2 of their series at Tropicana Field on Wednesday, and the Rays will look to make it two in a row after a four-run ninth inning led them to victory Tuesday.

Chicago has righty Javier Assad (4-2) heading to the bump with a solid 2.74 ERA, while Tampa will counter with right-handed starter Aaron Civale (2-5) toeing the rubber and sporting a much higher 5.51 mark. 

My Cubs vs. Rays predictions expect Chicago's pitching edge to prevail in our MLB picks for June 12. 

Cubs vs Rays prediction

My best bet
Cubs moneyline (-102 at Pinnacle)

My analysis

Even with the underlying xFIP numbers positioning Chicago Cubs starter Javier Assad (3.98) and Tampa Bay Rays righty Aaron Civale (3.83) closer to equals than the highlighted ERA gap, I still favor the Cubbies in this matchup.

Chicago has been the superior team against right-handed pitchers, sporting a .305 wOBA and 98 wRC+ compared to Tampa Bay’s respective .288 and 91 marks that rank 29th and 24th in baseball. The Rays have also dipped to a .286 wOBA and 89 wCR+ at the plate, while the Cubs have climbed to .319 and 108 marks since June 1.

Additionally, the Cubs have the second-highest walk rate (9.8%) against righties in the majors, and Civale has only pitched into the sixth inning twice across his past nine starts. I’m expecting him to have another short stay on the hill and give way to the below-average Tampa bullpen around the midway point of tonight's game.

Even though Chicago closer Hector Neris blew the save last night, the Cubs have the superior bullpen, with Tampa sporting a 27th-ranked 4.50 xFIP compared to Chicago’s 19th-ranked 4.07 mark.

Cubs vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)

Cubs moneyline

Javier Assad Over 4.5 strikeouts

Assad has five or more strikeouts in four of his past five starts, with 33 across just 26.2 innings. The right-hander is recording a 1.70 ERA with 35 punchouts through 42 1/3 innings across his first eight starts of the season.

Tampa Bay also ranks ninth with a 23.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, and we’re landing a nice edge in the +204 odds considering this SGP adds up to +180 at bet365. The difference in the numbers checks out as a positive expected value of 9%.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cubs vs Rays odds

Cubs vs Rays live odds

Cubs vs Rays opening odds

  • Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-200) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+165)
  • Moneyline: Chicago -105 | Tampa Bay -115
  • Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)

Cubs vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Chicago is slogging along a 5-13 stretch, and Tampa is mired in a similar 7-13 funk. With both starting pitchers entering following underwhelming starts, it isn’t surprising that there hasn’t been enough betting action on either team to move the needle.
  • Pinnacle has moved the total from an opening number of 8.0 to 7.5 late Tuesday evening. 
  • The Over 7.5 runs is carrying the higher vig across the board, and the 7.5 total is the number across the majority of shops.

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Cubs vs Rays trend

Tampa Bay starter Aaron Civale hasn’t pitched into the sixth inning in seven of his past nine starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Rays

Cubs vs Rays game info

Location: Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay, FL
Date: Wednesday, 6-12-2024
First pitch: 6:50 p.m. ET
TV: MARQ, BSSUN
Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad
(4-2, 2.74 ERA)
Rays starting pitcher: Aaron Civale
(2-5, 5.51 ERA)

Cubs vs Rays latest injuries

Cubs vs Rays weather

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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

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