The Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays play Game 2 of their series at Tropicana Field on Wednesday, and the Rays will look to make it two in a row after a four-run ninth inning led them to victory Tuesday.
Chicago has righty Javier Assad (4-2) heading to the bump with a solid 2.74 ERA, while Tampa will counter with right-handed starter Aaron Civale (2-5) toeing the rubber and sporting a much higher 5.51 mark.
My Cubs vs. Rays predictions expect Chicago's pitching edge to prevail in our MLB picks for June 12.
Cubs vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Cubs moneyline (-102 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
Even with the underlying xFIP numbers positioning Chicago Cubs starter Javier Assad (3.98) and Tampa Bay Rays righty Aaron Civale (3.83) closer to equals than the highlighted ERA gap, I still favor the Cubbies in this matchup.
Chicago has been the superior team against right-handed pitchers, sporting a .305 wOBA and 98 wRC+ compared to Tampa Bay’s respective .288 and 91 marks that rank 29th and 24th in baseball. The Rays have also dipped to a .286 wOBA and 89 wCR+ at the plate, while the Cubs have climbed to .319 and 108 marks since June 1.
Additionally, the Cubs have the second-highest walk rate (9.8%) against righties in the majors, and Civale has only pitched into the sixth inning twice across his past nine starts. I’m expecting him to have another short stay on the hill and give way to the below-average Tampa bullpen around the midway point of tonight's game.
Even though Chicago closer Hector Neris blew the save last night, the Cubs have the superior bullpen, with Tampa sporting a 27th-ranked 4.50 xFIP compared to Chicago’s 19th-ranked 4.07 mark.
Cubs vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Javier Assad Over 4.5 strikeouts
Assad has five or more strikeouts in four of his past five starts, with 33 across just 26.2 innings. The right-hander is recording a 1.70 ERA with 35 punchouts through 42 1/3 innings across his first eight starts of the season.
Tampa Bay also ranks ninth with a 23.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, and we’re landing a nice edge in the +204 odds considering this SGP adds up to +180 at bet365. The difference in the numbers checks out as a positive expected value of 9%.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Rays odds
Cubs vs Rays live odds
Cubs vs Rays opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-200) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Chicago -105 | Tampa Bay -115
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Cubs vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis
- Chicago is slogging along a 5-13 stretch, and Tampa is mired in a similar 7-13 funk. With both starting pitchers entering following underwhelming starts, it isn’t surprising that there hasn’t been enough betting action on either team to move the needle.
- Pinnacle has moved the total from an opening number of 8.0 to 7.5 late Tuesday evening.
- The Over 7.5 runs is carrying the higher vig across the board, and the 7.5 total is the number across the majority of shops.
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Cubs vs Rays trend
Tampa Bay starter Aaron Civale hasn’t pitched into the sixth inning in seven of his past nine starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Rays
Cubs vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 6-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:50 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, BSSUN |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Javier Assad (4-2, 2.74 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Aaron Civale (2-5, 5.51 ERA) |
Cubs vs Rays latest injuries
Cubs vs Rays weather
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