A pair of the best offenses in baseball start a three-game set at Nationals Park on Tuesday, Aug. 11, with the Chicago Cubs booked as a sizable road favorite over the Washington Nationals in the series opener.
My top Cubs vs. Nationals predictions and MLB picks are calling for Chicago to win a high-scoring game tonight.
Who will win Cubs vs Nationals today: Cubs moneyline (-160)
There is a huge pitching disparity in this matchup, with Chicago Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga allowing two runs or fewer in each of his past seven starts for a tidy 1.77 ERA.
The Washington Nationals are countering with Jake Irvin, and he’s spun a confidence-shattering 5.37 ERA and 5.39 xERA across 13 starts.
The Chicago offense is also rolling to the tune of a second-ranked wOBA while averaging 5.8 runs per game over the past 30 days, so I’m anticipating the North Siders putting enough crooked numbers on the scoreboard to pull away from the Nats.
COVERS INTEL: Irvin has surrendered the third-highest barrel percentage among pitchers with at least 50 innings this season, which positions the Cubs to both pull away for the win and lead the way to this total going Over.
Cubs vs Nationals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-125)
This is a low total considering the Nationals pace the majors in wOBA while averaging 5.4 runs per game over the past 30 days, and while Imanaga has surrendered two runs or fewer in each of his past seven starts, his 1.77 ERA during the stretch is miles below his 3.75 xERA and 3.50 xFIP.
So, with the Nationals ranking second in wOBA against lefties for the campaign and second in xwOBA across their past 24 games, I’m also expecting Washington to put runs on the board.
Cubs vs Nationals home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+340)
Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong is scorching along a 15-game heater with a .288 ISO, .390 wOBA, and .371 xwOBA and lands in the highlighted favorable matchup against Irvin on Tuesday.
In addition to the noted shortcomings, Irvin has served up a .511 slugging percentage and .394 wOBA to opposing hitters at home, and the Chicago star has only left the yard three times during the run despite the eye-popping underlying numbers.
As a result, I like Crow-Armstrong to go deep in ideal hitting conditions tonight.
- ML/RL bets: 44-19, +27.58 units
- Over/Under bets: 19-16, +1.86 units
Cubs vs Nationals weather
Despite a slight chance of rain impacting play, the forecast calls for excellent hitting conditions with 85°F heat and 58.8% humidity under partially cloudy skies.
Cubs vs Nationals odds
- Moneyline: Cubs -160 | Nationals +140
- Run line: Cubs -1.5 (-105) | Nationals +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-130) | Under 8.5 (+110)
Cubs vs Nationals trend
The Cubs have won 34 of their last 50 games (+14.85 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Nationals.
How to watch Cubs vs Nationals and game info
| Location | Nationals Park, Washington, D.C. |
| Date | Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | Marquee, Nationals.TV |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Shota Imanaga (8-9, 3.60 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Jake Irvin (2-5, 5.37 ERA) |
Cubs vs Nationals latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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