The last game of the day on a packed slate will take us to the Pacific Northwest where the Chicago Cubs look for some revenge over the Seattle Mariners after they were dominated by Bryce Miller on Friday night.
Can Shota Imanaga level this series for Chicago as it attempts to get back to its winning ways?
Let's dive right into it with our in-depth MLB picks and Cubs vs. Mariners predictions on Saturday, April 13.
Cubs vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Cubs moneyline (-138 at FanDuel)
My analysis
T-Mobile Field is where fly balls go to die, so that should create an exceptional setting for Chicago Cubs ace Shota Imanaga. The lefty has rolled up ground balls at a seemingly impossible 8.7% rate this season, and his gaudy strikeout numbers from Japan have also carried over to the big leagues through his two starts, with 12 punchouts in 12 innings.
Given that Imanaga never had issues with home runs in his stellar run overseas, it seems to be a safe bet that his ground ball rate will not remain this alarmingly low. It’s just that nobody is putting the ball in play against this guy.
The Seattle Mariners were dreadful against southpaws last season and led the league in strikeouts a season after finishing with the second-worst strikeout rate. This is a dream spot for Imanaga, who should find a ton of swings and misses this evening.
On the other hand, Emerson Hancock should be in real trouble here. The right-hander has struggled to find strikeouts in his short time at this level, and he surely won’t find them here against a Cubs team that has been one of the best in baseball at limiting punchouts.
Hancock's expected batting average is up at an unsightly .355 so far this season with a 12.1% barrel rate and .592 expected slugging. This is an incredibly lopsided matchup between an elite offense and one of the least appealing in baseball, made even stronger by the discrepancy in both pitchers.
Cubs vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Shota Imanaga 7+ strikeouts
Dansby Swanson 2+ total bases
Sure, Imanaga is technically averaging six strikeouts per start to this point, but those have come in just 10 innings. He struck out nine Rockies over six frames in his first career start back on April 1, a team that profiles incredibly similarly to the Mariners in terms of their inability to get the ball back into play.
The Dodgers were the next test for Imanaga, where he didn’t find quite as many strikeouts, but that is a much different matchup given the patience that L.A. exhibits at the plate and its ability to limit strikeouts. I’m not worried about the punches coming in bunches here for the lefty and will happily roll the dice with the alternative number here.
I’ll also back a good fastball hitter and a guy who’s made a wealth of solid contact, as we take Dansby Swanson to get two or more total bases. I can certainly see some gappers here on the horizon for Swanson, who’s been somewhat stiffed with just four extra-base hits given his batted-ball profile. The Cubbies shortstop has gone cold in the last few games and this is the time to buy low in an excellent matchup.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Mariners odds
Cubs vs Mariners live odds
Cubs vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Chicago -1.5 (-110) | Seattle +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Chicago -140 | Seattle +115
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Cubs vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cubs opened up here around -140 favorites, and while there’s been some buy-back on the Mariners a couple of times, the market has quickly corrected in both cases to push the Cubs right back to around the opening line.
- The total has remained stagnant at eight runs, with ever so little movement towards the Over to create a cheaper deal on the Under.
- DraftKings is reporting that 51% of the bets and 66% of the money are on the Over, while 83% of the bets and 92% of cash are on the Cubs to win.
Cubs vs Mariners trend
The Cubs have hit the moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mariners
Cubs vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, RSNW |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Shota Imanaga (1-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Emerson Hancock (1-1, 11.42 ERA) |
Cubs vs Mariners latest injuries
Cubs vs Mariners weather
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