The first game of this NL Central series gets underway this afternoon, with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Chicago Cubs.
Milwaukee has the pitching advantage on paper, and my Cubs vs. Brewers prediction is expecting the hosts to cover the -1.5 run line on May 27. Find out more in my MLB picks ahead.
Cubs vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Brewers -1.5 (+180 at bet365)
My analysis
The Milwaukee Brewers hand the ball to left-handed rookie Robert Gasser, and he should be a tremendous candidate to back. Through his first three starts this season, Gasser is 2-0 with a commanding 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
The southpaw’s underlying metrics suggest this success is not a fluky result of a small sample size. Currently, Gasser ranks in the 85th percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, left-hander Justin Steele gets the ball for the Chicago Cubs. It's been a tough go for him this season, posting a 0-2 record with a fade-worthy 5.68 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
Steele’s underlying metrics are slightly stronger, but he still ranks in the 30th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Not only do the Brewers possess the starting pitching advantage, but they also boast the better bullpen.
This season, their relief pitching outranks the Cubs in ERA and xFIP. Additionally, Milwaukee is the stronger-hitting team as it paces Chicago in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs, and stolen bases.
Milwaukee is just too short of a favorite in this spot when you also factor in home-field advantage. I believe there is more value in backing the favorites on the run line at +180 rather than laying -115 on the moneyline, especially when you consider each of the Brewers’ past five wins have come by at least a two-run margin.
Cubs vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Brewers moneyline
Under 7.5
While I think Gasser and the Brewers will take care of business as favorites, I do think Steele is a better pitcher than what we have seen out of him thus far and will put together an improved outing.
Both bullpens also rank in the top half of the league in xFIP, which bodes well for the Under. While I like the Brewers’ run line for a straight bet, I don’t think it is necessary for the sake of this same game parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Brewers odds
Cubs vs Brewers live odds
Cubs vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-220) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Chicago -105 | MIlwaukee -115
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Cubs vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -115 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- The total opened at 8.0 and also remains at that price.
- I think it is more likely that this total goes to 7.5 rather than 8.5, given how strong Gasser has looked thus far and how poorly Chicago hits.
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Cubs vs Brewers trend
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the first five innings run line in 33 of their last 52 games (+10.85 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Brewers
Cubs vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Monday, 5-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (0-2, 5.68 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Robert Gasser (2-0, 2.65 ERA) |
Cubs vs Brewers latest injuries
Cubs vs Brewers weather
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