The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs begin a three-game series at Wrigley Field on the Fourth of July.
Chicago has a 4-game lead atop the NL Central, and my Cardinals vs. Cubs predictions are betting on them to win today.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this division rivalry on Friday, July 4.
Cardinals vs Cubs prediction
My Cardinals vs Cubs best bet: Cubs moneyline (-135 at bet365)
Both of these teams have struggling starters on the hill, but the Chicago Cubs have a slightly better bullpen. Chicago's relievers are second in the majors with a 3.18 ERA, while the St. Louis Cardinals are 12th with an ERA of 3.74.
The Cubs also have a significantly better offense, ranking fourth in the majors in OPS (.768) and second in runs per game (5.33). Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 15th in OPS (.716) with that number slimming to .690 on the road.
The Cards are coming off a series against the Pirates, where they were shut out in three straight games. They've now been shut out in five of their last seven contests since they also failed to score in the final two games of their series against the Cubs in St. Louis last week.
In addition, the Cubs have home-field advantage and have gone 15-5 in their last 20 games at Wrigley. They're the play on the moneyline at this price.
Cardinals vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Over 5.5 — First Five Innings
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 total bases
Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas is in the bottom 10th percentile in strikeout rate and the bottom 20th percentile in expected ERA (4.66), and expected batting average (.273). He's been even worse lately, pitching to a 6.90 ERA in his last six starts.
The Cubs respond with Colin Rea, who has an ugly 5.70 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP in his last 10 starts. A pair of terrible starters has me betting the Over 6 on the first five innings total.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is seventh in the majors with 180 total bases while ranking 11th in slugging percentage (.536). He slugs .596 with the platoon advantage and he also sees his numbers tick up at home. He will have the platoon advantage against Mikolas, and he has gone 3-4 at the dish with two dingers against the Cards righty in his career.
Cardinals vs Cubs odds
Cardinals vs Cubs live odds
Cardinals vs Cubs opening odds
- Moneyline: St. Louis +125 | Chicago -150
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-150) | Chicago -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-120) | Under 9.5 (+100)
Cardinals vs Cubs trend
The Cubs have cashed the moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+8.55 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs.
How to watch Cardinals vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois |
| Date | Friday, 7-4-2025 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Miles Mikolas (4-5, 4.76 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Colin Rea (5-3, 4.37 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Cubs latest injuries
Cardinals vs Cubs weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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