Cardinals vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: Slow Start in Milwaukee

As St. Louis and Milwaukee meet today, we're looking at a trend that has marked Jose Quintana for a while now. Don't count on early game fireworks between the Cardinals and Brewers, as our picks explain.

Last Updated: Sep 28, 2022 11:55 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jose Quintana St. Louis Cardinals MLB
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We have the second matchup of this two-game NL Central series with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the St. Louis Cardinals. These two clubs have gone back and forth all season as they now face each other for potentially the final time of the campaign.

Will the Brewers take care of business at home, or can the Cardinals pull off the upset as a road underdog? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Brewers on Wednesday, September 28.

Cardinals vs Brewers best odds

Cardinals vs Brewers picks and predictions

After unsuccessfully betting a no-run first inning in last night’s game, we are going to give it a stab one more time. Fool me once, right?

Left-hander Jose Quintana is taking the mound for St. Louis and should be an excellent candidate to back in this game. Through 30 starts this season, Quintana is 6-6 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. 

While he has been strong all season, he has been on an absolute tear throughout the second half. Over Quintana’s last 12 starts, he is 4-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

In those 12 games, the no-run first inning prop has cashed nine times. This strong pitching should continue against Milwaukee, a team that he has torched throughout his career. 

A former member of the Cubs and Pirates, Quintana has thrown against Milwaukee plenty of times. Across 20 career outings against the Brewers, he is 9-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

Since August 1, Milwaukee ranks just 28th in the league in BA, 26th in SLG, 24th in OPS, and 24th in wOBA when facing left-handed pitching. On the other side, right-hander Brandon Woodruff is taking the mound for the Brewers.

Through 25 starts this season, Woodruff is 12-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Like Quintana, Woodruff enters this contest in good form.

Over his last four starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. This strong pitching should continue against St. Louis, a team he has fared well against in his career.

Between his last four starts against the Cardinals, Woodruff has posted a 2.37 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. His metrics this year are also outstanding, boasting a .279 xwOBA, .213 xBA, and .348 xSLG.

With these two pitchers on the mound, I feel confident enough to get through the first inning without damage.

My best bet: No runs first inning (-136 at FanDuel)

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Cardinals vs Brewers moneyline analysis

I would lean towards the Cardinals moneyline in this contest at plus money but am not confident enough to pull the trigger. Quintana has been an absolute weapon on the mound since getting shipped over from Pittsburgh and I want no part in betting against him.

Additionally, the Cardinals hit right-handed pitching well as they rank in the top half of the league in BA, SLG, OPS, and wOBA since August 1. However, Woodruff is one of the better pitchers in the National League and has been in especially good form recently.

On top of that, the Brewers are fighting for their playoff lives and have the advantage of playing in front of a home crowd with the season winding down. This is one of those games where I will feel dumb if I bet against either guy on the mound considering how well they have been throwing.

For those reasons, I am staying away from picking a side.

Cardinals vs Brewers Over/Under analysis

As you can probably guess by now, I would lean towards taking the Under in this game. Both pitchers have been excellent and Milwaukee struggles against left-handed pitching.

So why not take the Under? I do not trust the Brewers’ bullpen at all.

Since August 1, Milwaukee’s relief pitching ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA, SLG, and FIP. Additionally, we always have to be cautious with the Under with the Cardinals because of how stacked their lineup is.

The first five Under is probably a good play to take as well, considering how great each of the starting pitchers has been, but I am just going to back Quintana’s NRFI trend and stick with that.

Cardinals vs Brewers trend to know

There have been zero runs scored in the first inning in nine of Jose Quintana's last 12 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Brewers

Cardinals vs Brewers game info

Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Date: Wednesday, September 28, 2022
First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Midwest, Bally Sports Wisconsin

Starting pitchers

Jose Quintana (6-6, 3.03 ERA): Since getting traded to St. Louis, Quintana has been dominant on the mound. Over his last 12 starts, he is 4-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The NRFI has cashed in nine of those 12 outings. Quintana boasts a four-pitch arsenal and does an excellent job mixing his pitches, throwing none of them more than 37% of the time.

Brandon Woodruff (12-4, 3.18 ERA): Making his 26th start on the mound for Milwaukee this season, Woodruff will look to continue his recent stretch of strong pitching. Over his last four outings, he is 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. Like Quintana, Woodruff does an excellent job mixing between his five-pitch arsenal as he does not throw any of his pitches more than 38% of the time. This unpredictability has frustrated hitters all season.

Cardinals vs Brewers latest injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

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