The unpredictable play in Pool C continues this afternoon as Canada, for the second straight game, will be playing a motivated team after Colombia suffered one of the biggest upsets in the tournament yesterday in a 7-5 loss to Great Britain.
Now the underdog Colombians will look to move to 2-1 in the pool vs. the 1-1 Canadians who just got mercied by the USA less than 24 hours ago.
Canada has seen some action on the moneyline, but with both teams’ issues holding a weak Great Britain offense off of the scoreboard, could we see some two-way scoring this afternoon?
Find out where my best bets lie in this WBC matchup between Canada vs. Colombia.
Canada vs Colombia odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under
|-1.5 (+100)||Run line||+1.5 (-130)|
|Over 11.5 (-110)||Total||Under 11.5 (-120)|
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of March 14, 2023.
Canada vs Colombia picks and predictions
Both of these nations allowed at least seven runs to Great Britain in pool play, highlighting the pitching issues each roster has.
Canada’s pitching is not something I’m comfortable laying 40 points with on the moneyline, and with such a quick turnaround after yesterday’s seven-inning defeat, it’s a tough spot even against a Colombian offense that hasn’t broken out.
It took a matchup vs. Canada for the American bats to get going yesterday as they hung a nine-pack in the first frame in a 12-1 win. Now a Colombian lineup that has plenty of MLB experience will see a Canadian pitching staff that has allowed 20 runs across 13 innings — good for a 13.85 ERA.
Canada used Cal Quantril in the opener vs. Great Britain and will now roll the dice with 24-year-old minor-leaguer Noah Skirrow, a righty with two seasons of affiliated ball under his belt after a collegiate career at Liberty where he had a 3.83 ERA over three seasons. His leash likely won’t be long and he’ll give way to a weak bullpen.
The Canadians will be able to plate some runs today as well, as this lineup has plenty of pop in the middle. Tyler O’Neil is hitting over .700 in the tournament and Freddie Freeman is hitting in front of him.
Colombia will be starting lefty Adrian Almeida, is a career minor-leaguer and someone who struggled in the Mexican League in 2022 with a 6.39 ERA. There are not many solid arms in the Colombian bullpen, and with a massive game vs. USA tomorrow, we could easily see some over-managing.
Neither team has impressed. Canada is 1-1 but shouldn’t feel great about it while Colombia lost plenty of confidence with a humiliating defeat to Great Britain yesterday.
I’m leaning toward the Over here — both teams are a combined 4-0 to the Over so far in the tournament — but I think getting both teams to score at least five runs at +130 is the better play. The favorites are the visitors today which also helps.
My best bet: Both teams to score 5+ runs (+130 at bet365)
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Canada vs Colombia moneyline analysis
Colombia and Canada had identical +2,500 odds to win the pool, so it’s no surprise to see one of the closer projected games in the tournament. Canada opened as -130 favorites but moved to -150 twenty minutes after opening at bet365 before settling back down at -140.
Team Canada is coming off a rough seven-inning loss to the Americans who piled up nine runs in the first frame and chased 19-year-old starter Mitch Bratt. Things settled down slightly after that, but one positive to take away was Canada manager Ernie Whitt didn’t have to use his best arms in the defeat.
Colombia also took a rough loss yesterday dropping a 7-5 decision to Great Britain as a hefty -700 favorite. Despite the embarrassing loss, the quick turnaround helps as does its win over Mexico which could be very important in case of a tie in the standings after the four pool games.
Canada has the advantage in starting pitching as projected starter Noah Skirrow is a young arm currently in Triple-A and is more talented than Adrian Almeida
Looking at both offenses, I have to give the edge to the Canadians in high-end talent. Colombia has the deeper lineup, but Freddie Freeman and a hot Tyler O’Neil make up a stronger middle of the order than Colombia’s Gio Urshela (.000 batting average) and Jorge Alfaro.
In what I project to be a high-scoring game between two teams with weak pitching, the better-hitting Canadians should outlast their opponents who’ve also had issues with errors.
However, I doubt I’d pay 40 cents on the visitors here in a game that could easily swing with a massive inning. Considering the quick turnaround, I had Canada as a slighter favorite and around -125. This could turn into a numbers play if Colombia gets to +130, as I have these teams fairly even.
Canada vs Colombia Over/Under analysis
Through two games, opponents are hitting .333 vs. Canada with 13 walks and 20 runs over 13 innings. Combined, both nations are a perfect 4-0 to the Over and are seeing a total of 11.5 for this afternoon that’s leaning to the Under.
This is a Canadian bullpen that could snap the Colombians’ cold streak at the dish. Canada has all its best arms today but that isn’t saying much. Yes, Cal Quantril is available and so are Matt Brash and John Axford, but if Great Britain can plate eight runs vs. this pitching, Colombia should be able to do its part in hitting this Over.
Great Britain managed just seven hits vs. Colombia but also reached on a pair of errors, had four extra-base hits including a home run, and also drew eight walks. Canada managed just a single run off of the USA but Lance Lynn was dealing and went five of the seven innings. It did manage three hits off of reliever Miles Mikolas over two frames but will have a much easier matchup today.
Skirrow is the better of the two starters but has some command issues (4.9 BB/9 in college) while Almeida is a giant question mark and is not a pitcher I’m trusting to throw up donuts.
I’m already dipping into the ‘both teams’ markets and favor the Over here in a game I could easily see both clubs score six each.
Canada vs Colombia game info
|Location:||Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ|
|Date:||Tuesday, March 14, 2023|
|First pitch:||3:00 p.m. ET|
Canada vs Colombia starting pitchers
Noah Skirrow: The 24-year-old right-hander is entering his third season of affiliated ball after spending three years at Liberty where he posted a sub 4.00 ERA. He can rack up the strikeouts but can get into trouble with walks, allowing a hit per inning so far in his minor-league career.
Adrian Almeida: The lefty is a career minor-leaguer who never tasted the Majors. He posted a 6.39 ERA in Mexico and has some inane command issues. Over his 11-year professional career, he has a very respectable 10.1 K/9 but an awful 7.7 BB/9. Pitch count and walks are going to be an issue.