The second installment of this four-game series gets underway on Friday evening with the NL West’s San Diego Padres hosting the NL Central’s Milwaukee Brewers.
After last night’s thrilling 4-3 win in extra innings, Milwaukee looks to go up 2-0 in the series.
Will the Brewers take care of business yet again, or can the Padres even the score on their home diamond? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Padres on Friday, April 14.
Brewers vs Padres odds
Brewers vs Padres predictions
Taking the mound for the Brewers in this contest is left-hander Eric Lauer. There’s no denying that it’s been a bit of a rocky start to Lauer’s 2023, going 1-1 through two starts with a 7.71 ERA and 1.82 WHIP.
However, despite his struggles, he still ranks in the 55th percentile in K% and is averaging five strikeouts per start. Lauer is likely never to reach the ceiling many thought he once had as a first-round draft pick, but the one thing he continues to do at an above-average level is rack up strikeouts.
In each of his last two seasons, he’s finished the campaign with a K% north of 23%, which is a product of his nasty cutter. At DraftKings, Lauer’s strikeout prop can be found as low as 4.5 as of Friday afternoon, and we’re going to take the Over.
Although San Diego's lineup is obviously stacked from top-to-bottom, it still features an abundance of guys who are especially vulnerable to the strikeout. Looking at the Padres’ projected starting lineup for Friday, seven of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 23%.
This season, San Diego ranks in the bottom-half of the league in K%. It makes sense why Lauer’s strikeout prop is set low in this contest, especially considering the Padres’ stellar lineup.
However, catching plus-money on the Over of Lauer’s strikeout total at 4.5 is an over-adjustment. Additionally, due to last night’s extra innings affair, Milwaukee utilized four arms out of the bullpen.
Even if Lauer gets shelled once again, he may have to weather the storm longer than desired due to the Brewers running through a decent amount of their bullpen last night, which is good for his strikeout prop.
My best bet: Eric Lauer Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
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Brewers vs Padres moneyline analysis
I would lean towards the Brewers moneyline in this contest, but would rather just back Lauer’s strikeout prop than mixing in Milwaukee’s inconsistent lineup into the equation. Not only is the Brewers’ young lineup untrustworthy, but Lauer himself could still get rocked despite racking up strikeouts.
On the other side, right-hander Michael Wacha is slated to take the mound for the Padres. To start 2023, Wacha’s 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. In his most recent outing against the powerhouse Atlanta Braves, Wacha tossed a gem as he allowed zero runs on just two hits through six innings while striking out 10.
However, his underlying metrics suggest regression could be looming for the right-hander. Despite the strong surface-level stats, Wacha ranks in the 45th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xSLG, Barrel%, and fastball velocity.
Brewers vs Padres Over/Under analysis
I would also lean towards the Over in this contest, but do not feel confident one way or the other. Both lineups are susceptible to the punchout, which could get these pitchers out of jams with runners in scoring positions throughout the game.
However, if the ump tigthens the zone or neither of these guys get the punchout going, then it could be a long outing for both Lauer and Wacha. As mentioned above, Wacha ranks in the 45th percentile or lower this season in xERA/xwOBA, xSLG, Barrel%, and fastball velocity.
With that said, Lauer’s metrics are even worse. In 2023, he ranks in the 12th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and fastball velocity.
Brewers vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Friday, April 14, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSWI, BSSD |
Brewers vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Eric Lauer (1-1, 7.71 ERA): Lauer got shelled in his last outing against the St. Louis Cardinals, allowing six runs on seven hits through just four innings pitched. That outing tanked his surface-level stats after he tossed a solid game against Chicago in his season debut, allowing just two runs on five hits through five and 1/3 innings. With that said, his underlying metrics across both outings are a major concern moving forward for Lauer, who is expected to anchor the bottom portion of Milwaukee’s rotation.
Michael Wacha (2-0, 3.00 ERA): In contrast to Lauer, Wacha’s surface-level stats are a bit skewed due to his most recent gem against the Atlanta Braves, a game in which he surrendered zero runs on just two hits through six innings. In the start prior, the right-hander allowed four runs on six hits through six innings against the fade-worthy Colorado Rockies. While Wacha’s metrics are not great, they are much closer to league average, which means his outlook moving forward remains to be seen.
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Trend to know
Opposing starting pitchers have recorded at least five strikeouts in five of the last eight games against the Padres. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Padres
