The Dodgers have won 10 in a row as they solidify their claim as the best of the NL West. After taking it to the Brewers twice this week, they can send a fellow playoff contender into some real trouble in their own division race.
Let’s break down Brewers vs. Dodgers in our MLB picks and predictions for August 17.
Brewers vs Dodgers odds
Brewers vs Dodgers predictions
Well, that was easy. After looking lost and potentially on the brink of retirement earlier in the year with the White Sox, the Dodgers have done what they do best and coached a talented pitcher in Lance Lynn back to form, at least to some extent. Lynn owns a 2.00 ERA in three starts for his new team since coming over at the deadline, striking out 22 in 18 innings.
However, Lynn's ground ball rate remains down in the month of August, and his hard-hit rate remains high. Even his expected batting average has come up from .233 in July to .237 this month. These are better numbers than we’ve seen all year, and perhaps the Dodgers defense has had something to do with the positive regression, but it seems there’s still some work to do before L.A. can claim it has completely fixed Lynn.
Corbin Burnes, on the other hand, is not enjoying life this month. He owns a 5.40 ERA in two starts, walking seven and striking out 10 in 11 2/3 innings.
I’m extremely concerned with Burnes’ walk issues reappearing considering who he’s about to face on Thursday. L.A. is the most patient offense in baseball. The home side owns a beefy 10.6% walk rate in the last two weeks, which is nothing new, and it has struck out in just 21.5% of plate appearances.
I’m not completely ready to trust Lynn, but the Brewers’ offense remains abysmal. With their swing-and-miss issues, this should be a start the right-hander can dominate in.
My best bet: Dodgers moneyline (-145 at Caesars)
Brewers vs Dodgers same-game parlay
Dodgers moneyline
Lance Lynn Over 5.5 Ks
Corbin Burnes Under 6.5 Ks
I’m not trying to get too cute with the props. The fact of the matter is that Burnes has been burned by a ton of walks lately (and for parts of the season), and the Dodgers are great at drawing walks. That’s where I think this game will be won, but I don’t think betting on a Dodgers player to get a hit here is a fantastic idea given most players have a bad history against the righty.
Instead, I’ll bet on Burnes getting himself into a bit too much trouble and shortening his outing, and I’ll also bet on the Dodgers to have great at-bats and get the ball back in play like only they can. That is accomplished with the Under 6.5 K’s.
Lynn, meanwhile, has had six or more strikeouts in each of his three starts for the Dodgers and comes into this one with a solid 27.4% strikeout rate. The veteran will also be up against a team striking out in nearly a quarter of their plate appearances over the last two weeks.
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Brewers vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
For all the reasons I stated above, the Dodgers moneyline is my best bet. The Dodgers are a public side at DraftKings with 76% of the wagers, but just 68% of the handle.
It would seem that the Under is the better of the two options here, if you’re going to be betting this total. Burnes did allow five runs last time out, but prior to that he had gone seven straight starts without allowing more than two runs. He’s unlikely to singlehandedly ruin the chances of cashing the Under.
The Brewers have been one of the best teams all year at hitting the Under given they have arguably the best staff in the league. Their bullpen behind Burnes will be incredibly strong, but it’s highly unlikely they’re able to hit much against a strikeout pitcher like Lynn, given how they profile.
Over at DraftKings, 39% of the bets on the total are on the Under, while that side accounts for 44% of the handle.
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Trend to know
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 41 away games (+6.90 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Dodgers
Brewers vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, August 17, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSWI, SNLA |
Starting pitchers
Corbin Burnes (9-6, 3.60 ERA): The former Cy Young Award winner has taken a bit of a step back in 2023 with a 3.60 ERA and 3.39 xERA due to a huge drop in strikeouts. Still, his .222 xBA is nothing to scoff at, and his 5.5% barrel rate is elite. Fewer strikeouts and more walks have done him in.
Lance Lynn (9-9, 5.88 ERA): Lynn has remained consistent in the strikeout department all year, but one thing that’s also remained a constant is his issue with home runs. He’s allowed four in three starts as a Dodger, even if his counting stats have been good.
