Brewers vs Cubs Picks: Trouble Brewing

Apr 23, 2021 |
By: Covers Staff
Brewers vs Cubs Picks: Trouble Brewing
Kyle Hendricks has been less-than-stellar so far this season, but is due for an upswing and dominated the Brewers last time they met.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Hendricks has been less-than-stellar so far this season, but is due for an upswing and dominated the Brewers last time they met.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs would like the rest of Major League Baseball to know that they're not ready to fade into the background – and a strong showing this weekend against a division rival will go a long way toward accomplishing that goal.

The Cubs carry a three-game winning streak into Friday's opener of a three-game set with the National League Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers, who have also won three in a row. The Cubs begin the weekend two games back of the Brewers, who have already won four of the first six games of the season series between the teams.

Brewers vs Cubs odds

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MLB sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Chicago went up as a -134 favorite this morning at DraftKings, stretched out to -152 and is -150 as of 12:30 p.m. ET. However, it's two-way action, with 54 percent of bets on the Brewers and 51 percent of money on the Cubs. The total moved from 9.5 to 10 and back, now sitting at 9.5 (Under -120), with 72 percent of bets/64 percent of money on the Under.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Brewers vs Cubs betting preview

Starting pitchers

Brett Anderson (2-1, 2.65 ERA): Anderson has turned the clock all the way back to 2010, the last time he boasted an ERA this low over a full season. The journeyman southpaw is coming off a sensational outing vs. Pittsburgh where he held the Pirates to six hits over seven scoreless innings. He was, however, tagged for four runs in his season opener vs. the Cubs.

Kyle Hendricks (0-2, 6.92 ERA): This isn't the version of Hendricks that Cubs fans, bettors and fantasy players were expecting to see in 2021. He’s already surrendered five home runs over 13 innings, and was blitzed for seven runs over four rough innings vs. Atlanta last time out. He was dominant in his last meeting with the Brewers, throwing six shutout innings.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Brewers: OF Christian Yelich (Out), OF Lorenzo Cain (Out), 2B Kolten Wong (Probable).
Cubs: OF Joc Pederson (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Milwaukee has won each of its previous five road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs.

Moneyline pick

The Cubs are favored in the -135 to -140 range for this game, which is interesting when you consider everything working against them. They're disadvantaged in the pitching department based solely on the overall numbers, and have already had their hands full with a Brewers team many experts have pegged to win the Central with ease.

Still, it's difficult to ignore how Hendricks looked in his lone meeting with the Brewers this season. That performance was much more in line with what we've come to expect from him in years past – and with Milwaukee still without Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, the lineup is not nearly as dangerous as it would be at full strength.

Chicago has already given Anderson fits, and the Cubs offense is averaging eight runs over its previous five games. That's good enough for us to lean toward the home team in what should be an entertaining opener.

PREDICTION: Cubs (-140)

Over/Under pick

The total for this game is an eye-popping 10 – and based on what we've seen from the Cubs' offense in recent games, it's not really that surprising. But it doesn't jive at all with what we've seen from the Brewers this season. Milwaukee has produced just five double-digit games over its first 18 outings and has gone Under in five of its last six.

Look for Hendricks to return to form, which should help keep this game in the single digits.

PREDICTION: Under 10 (-110)

Brewers vs Cubs betting card

  • Cubs (-140)
  • Under 10 (-110)

Picks made on 4/23/2021 at 9:30 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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