Brewers vs Braves Picks and Predictions: Burnes and Brew Crew Tame the Champs

Corbin Burnes has been throwing heat so far this season, but Milwaukee's usually-hot bats haven't shown up for him. In today's pitcher's duel, expect them to finally give him some support, as our Brewers vs. Braves picks explain.

John Reger - Contributor at
John Reger • Contributor
May 7, 2022 • 10:33 ET • 4 min read
Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers MLB
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The Milwaukee Brewers have the best record in baseball going into the second game of a three-game series with the Atlanta Braves. The Brewers won the opener, 6-3. 

The Braves, who are the defending World Series Champions, have had a rough start to the season. They’re sending lefty Max Fried to the mound, who has won his last three games. 

Can Fried and the Braves cool off the Brewers or will Milwaukee win its second straight over the Brewers. 

Find out with our free MLB picks and predictions for Brewers vs. Braves on May 7. 

Brewers vs Braves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Brewers opened at -115, but WynnBet has them at -101, while the Braves began at -105 and has stayed there at BetMGM and Caesars. The total began at 6.5 and stayed there. The over is +100 at WynnBet and the under is -105. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Brewers vs Braves predictions

Picks made on 5/7/2022 at 5:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Brewers vs Braves game info

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date: Sunday, May 7, 2022
First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports

Brewers vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Corbin Burnes (1-1, 1.93 ERA): Burnes has pitched well this season, but has little to show for it. The righty has gotten little run support from the Brewers in his starts. Over his last four outings, Burnes has allowed four earned runs on 13 hits with four walks and 39 strikeouts in 27 2/3 innings. Yet, he has just one victory to show for it.

Max Fried (3-2, 3.00 ERA): After two losses to start the season, Fried has been on fire. He has won his last three, including a 5-2 victory over the New York Mets, who are first in the National League East. In those three wins, Fried has gone six or more innings, allowing just three earned runs on 10 hits, while striking out 18. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Brewers: Jake Cousins P (Out), Pedro Severino C (Out), Josh Hader P (Out).
Braves: Travis Demeritte OF (Questionable), Manny Pina C (Out), Eddie Rosario OF (Out), Luke Jackson P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Brewers are 5-0 in their last five second games of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Braves

Brewers vs Braves picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

The Brewers are the hottest team in baseball. They’ve won nine of their last 10, including last night’s opener against the Atlanta Braves. The road atmosphere hasn’t been a problem for Milwaukee, who is 6-0 in its last six road games. 

The Brewers send right-hander Corbin Burnes to the mound to try and keep the team’s win streak alive. The 27-year-old has pitched well in his five starts, but has gotten no run support from Milwaukee. Ironic, since the team is tied for 14th in batting average at .235. 

But in Burnes’ five starts, the team has scored just eight runs, while the hurler has given up seven. In that span, Burnes became only the second Brewer pitcher to throw three straight games with 10 or more strikeouts. 

Still, he just has one victory, a loss, and three no-decisions for a pitcher who has an ERA of 1.93 and a WHIP of 0.73. 

The Braves will have to try and conquer their poor batting average against right-handed pitching. They have a .222 average, but have 24 of their 33 home runs off righties. 

Simply, Atlanta is struggling. It’s in third place in the National League East and has won just four of its last 10 games. 

One promising sign was that Ronald Acuna Jr. hit his first home run since returning from last July’s ACL injury. Acuna has played in just seven games this season, but is showing signs of returning to form. 

Ultimately though, the Brewers are about ready to give their starter some run support. If that happens, Burnes will do the rest. 

Prediction: Brewers -1.5 (+160 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

Both of these teams should be able to put up runs, but are facing tough starting pitching. Atlanta’s Max Fried has won his last three games, giving up just three earned runs. That has helped bring his ERA down to 3.00. His last game was against the New York Mets and he allowed just two runs in six innings. 

Burnes’ last outing was against the Chicago Cubs. He pitched seven strong innings, allowing two runs on four hits, but couldn’t get any run support, and took the loss. 

Still, despite the possible pitcher’s duel of Burnes and Fried, I believe the bats will prevail.  

The Brewers have the edge here. They are first in MLB in home runs (35) and RBI (128). Atlanta, however, is fifth in the league in home runs with 33 and 16th in RBI with 103. 

The trend here is the Over, as the Brewers have hit it in their last four games. 

Milwaukee is also 4-0 to the Over against a team with a losing record. The Braves, for their part,  have hit the Over in seven of their last eight games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15. Burnes’ WHIP is 0.73. 

Prediction: Over 6.5 (+100 at WynnBet)

Best bet

Allowing me to lay 1.5 runs with Milwaukee, the best offensive team in baseball, is a no-brainer, especially when FanDuel has set that line at +160. Oddsmakers believe Atlanta will bounce back after their Friday defeat against the Brewers and win Saturday’s game. I believe Milwaukee will continue their misery. 

The Brewers haven’t lost since a 2-0 defeat by the Chicago Cubs a week ago. Yes, Burnes was on the mound that day, but it wasn’t his fault. His teammates gave him no run support. I believe that will change on Saturday. 

Milwaukee has the best record in baseball at 19-8, and leads the majors in both home runs and RBI. Look for the Brewers to win by multiple runs. 

Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+160 at FanDuel) 

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