The Philadelphia Phillies will look to avoid being swept in their opening series when they host the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park this afternoon.
The Braves are favorites on the MLB odds board after outscoring the Phillies 21-7 through the first two games of the series. First, it was Philadelphia's bullpen that allowed nine runs on Friday afternoon before Aaron Nola allowed seven — and the bullpen surrendered six more — on Saturday.
Can Philly avoid a home-opening sweep at the hands of its NL East rival? Read on for my Braves vs. Phillies free MLB picks on Sunday, March 31.
Braves vs Phillies odds
Braves vs Phillies predictions
The Atlanta Braves have been one of the best teams in baseball over the past few seasons but the Philadelphia Phillies had their number in each of the last two postseasons. The Braves are getting some revenge to open up this season, however, with two blowout victories thus far.
Left-handed veteran Chris Sale will make his Atlanta debut this afternoon. Sale was one of the best pitchers in the league during his prime but has battled injury issues since 2019. He looked pretty solid in spring training with 19 strikeouts and five walks while allowing five runs on 13 hits in 12 2/3 innings.
The number to key in on there for Sale is those 19 Ks. Spring training numbers ultimately mean nothing, but it was good to see Sale with strikeout stuff as he geared up for the season. He racked up six strikeouts in both of his final two spring training starts in just 6 1/3 innings against the Rays and Twins.
What does hold a little bit more weight is Sale’s 10-strikeout performance against the Phillies last season. On May 5 he went into Philadelphia and posted double-digit strikeouts across six innings.
The Phillies struck out 15 times against Braves pitching during Friday’s loss before a very respectable four punchouts on Saturday. However, that was largely a bullpen game for the Braves with lower-leverage relievers throwing most of the innings.
Philadelphia had the most strikeouts in the league against left-handed pitching last season with 471 in 1,665 at-bats (28.28%) as opposed to 26.06% vs. right handers. Sale should be able to stifle a frustrated Phillies lineup and rack up the strikeouts in the process.
My best bet: Sale Over 5.5 strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings)
Braves vs Phillies same-game parlay
Chris Sale to record 6+ strikeouts
Austin Riley 2+ total bases
Braves moneyline
I’m parlaying my best bet with a prop for third baseman Austin Riley. Riley is perhaps overlooked a bit as a key cog in the Braves lineup. He bats third for Atlanta and is usually in a pretty good spot given the guys around him in the lineup.
Riley only has one hit through nine at-bats this season but it was a double against Aaron Nola in Saturday’s win. It will be southpaw Ranger Suarez on the mound for the Phillies and Riley rakes against left-handed pitching. Last season, Riley’s OPS was 100 points higher against LHP (.941) than it was against RHP (.841).
Suarez has seen Riley quite a few times in his career and the third baseman is batting .350 (7-for-20) against him with two home runs and two doubles.
If Sale pitches well and Riley batters the southpaw, the Braves should also be in good position to win the game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Braves vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Braves opened around -120 favorites and are as high as -140 as of early Sunday morning after taking some action
- The Phillies are now up to +115 underdogs after opening closer to even money
- The total remains at 8.5 with the Over 8.5 at -115 and the Under 8.5 +102
Trend to know
The Braves have hit the moneyline in 50 of their last 80 away games (+4.65 Units / 4% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies
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Braves vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, March 31, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally South, NBCS-PHI |
Starting pitchers
Chris Sale (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Sale was a dominant strikeout pitcher for much of his career but injuries have hampered him over the last couple of seasons. He'll look to get back on track with the Braves.
Ranger Suarez (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Suarez was a solid pitcher for Philadelphia last season, racking up 119 punchouts over 125 innings of work. Philly will need him to remain solid in 2024.
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