Sunday’s 15-game MLB slate is filled with opportunity.
On today’s massive card, I’m targeting the sticks and bullpens in strong spots.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Sunday, June 7.
MLB moneyline picks for June 7
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Red Soxvs  Yankees |
-150 |
 White Soxvs  Phillies |
+163 |
 Piratesvs  Braves |
+127 |
 Oriolesvs  Blue Jays |
+113 |
 Marinersvs  Tigers |
-117 |
 Raysvs  Marlins |
+104 |
 Athleticsvs  Astros |
-117 |
 Royalsvs  Twins |
-104 |
 Redsvs  Cardinals |
-127 |
 Guardiansvs  Rangers |
+104 |
 Brewersvs  Rockies |
+144 |
 Nationalsvs  Diamondbacks |
-122 |
 Angelsvs  Dodgers |
+150 |
 Metsvs  Padres |
+104 |
 Giantsvs  Cubs |
-117 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 6-7.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for June 7
Red Sox vs Yankees: Yankees (-150)
Yankees win probability: 60%
The Yankees are comfortable home chalk behind AL Cy Young contender Cam Schlittler.
While New York boasts a superior 125 wRC+ over the past 14 days, Boston's sharper bullpen (3.67 FIP over the past 14 days) looms.
Still, the Yankees' big sticks should secure the win.
White Sox vs Phillies: White Sox (+163)
White Sox win probability: 38%
Philadelphia is heavily favored, but its offense has completely cratered to a dead-last 71 wRC+ over the past 14 days.
David Sandlin faces a Phillies unit whose bullpen owns a 3.01 SIERA over the past 14 days, but Chicago’s hot bats (113 wRC+ over the past 14 days) are a premium road underdog value.
Pirates vs Braves: Pirates (+127)
Pirates win probability: 44.1%
Atlanta is the chalky favorite, but its offense has sported a measly 92 wRC+ over the past 14 days.
Despite Bubba Chandler’s shortcomings, Pittsburgh’s scorching offense (128 wRC+ and an elite 10.8% walk rate over the past 14 days) can damage Bryce Elder early.
Orioles vs Blue Jays: Orioles (+113)
Orioles win probability: 46.9%
This features a tight underdog price for Baltimore.
Both offenses are neck-and-neck over the past 14 days, but Toronto's bullpen has unraveled to a messy 4.44 SIERA over the past 14 days.
Take the plus-money side holding the safer late-game bullpen safety net (3.65 SIERA over the past 14 days).
Mariners vs Tigers: Mariners (-117)
Mariners win probability: 53.9%
With Luis Castillo on the mound and a stable 3.56 SIERA relief crew behind him over the past 14 days, the M's stand tall against a Detroit bullpen carrying a hazardous 5.49 FIP over the past two weeks.
Rays vs Marlins: Marlins (+104)
Marlins win probability: 49%
The market completely overlooks Miami here. Tampa Bay's bullpen is a certified fade zone, dragging a brutal 6.28 FIP over the past 14 days.
Sandy Alcantara stifles the Rays early while Miami's superior rolling 105 wRC+ offense over the past two weeks takes over.
Athletics vs Astros: Astros (-117)
Astros win probability: 53.9%
Houston targets a solid road win with hidden bullpen dominance.
Under the hood, Astro relievers flash an elite 3.61 SIERA and a stifling .163 opponent average over the past 14 days, giving them a massive mathematical advantage to shut down the Athletics' bats late.
Royals vs Twins: Twins (-104)
Twins win probability: 51%
A coin-flip matchup with Minnesota as the short favorite.
With both offenses stuck below a sub-90 wRC+ over the past 14 days, the decision is to run completely away from a melting Kansas City bullpen that has yielded a catastrophic 6.49 FIP over the same span.
Reds vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-127)
Cardinals win probability: 55.9%
St. Louis commands the edge against a reckless Cincinnati offense striking out at a league-worst 28.4% rate over the past 14 days.
The disciplined Cardinals bullpen features a stellar 3.19 SIERA over the past 14 days, allowing them to cruise.
Guardians vs Rangers: Guardians (+104)
Guardians win probability: 49%
Texas is favored behind Jacob deGrom, but the advanced metrics flip the script.
Joey Cantillo only needs to keep it close before handing over to Cleveland's MLB-best bullpen (2.92 SIERA and 20.5% K-BB% over the past 14 days) to steal a road win.
Brewers vs Rockies: Rockies (+144)
Rockies win probability: 41%
Milwaukee starter Shane Drohan is walking the world with an 8.10 BB/9 rate.
His volatile control faces a Rockies bullpen carrying a league-worst 5.04 xFIP over the past 14 days, but the altitude will punish Drohan first.
Nationals vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks (-122)
Diamondbacks win probability: 55%
Arizona holds a sound probability edge.
Washington's worn-down bullpen has completely hit a wall over the past 14 days (4.90 FIP and 4.49 SIERA), leaving the Diamondbacks' steadier bullpen (3.50 SIERA over the past 14 days) to lock it down.
Angels vs Dodgers: Angels (+150)
Angels win probability: 40%
The Dodgers sit as heavy favorites, but the prices are wrong.
Both lineups are raking over the past 14 days, yet both bullpens sport identical, bloated 4.89 FIPs. Grab the Angels at a plus-money shootout price.
Mets vs Padres: Mets (+104)
Mets win probability: 49%
With both offenses ice-cold and sitting bottom-five in wRC+ over the past 14 days, the edge belongs to the Mets' superior relief core, which boasts a high 26.0% strikeout rate and 3.47 SIERA over the past 14 days.
Giants vs Cubs: Cubs (-117)
Cubs win probability: 53.9%
The Cubs carry the advantage tonight.
Even with San Francisco's elite 142 wRC+ over the past 14 days, its bullpen is a toxic waste site (4.94 SIERA over the same span).
Jameson Taillon navigates early, allowing Chicago's steadier relievers to close.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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