Braves vs Brewers Picks and Predictions: Good Things Brewing

The Milwaukee Brewers will look to pad their lead atop the Central Division tonight when they host the reeling Atlanta Braves at home.

Last Updated: May 17, 2022 5:16 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Adrian Houser Milwaukee Brewers MLB
Photo By - USA Today

Call it a World Series hangover? Champions of the sport in 2021, the Atlanta Braves have stumbled out of the gates to a 16-20 record in 2022.

They’ll look to right the ship against a Milwaukee Brewers team that has surprised many with a 23-13 start. There wasn’t much offense to be found in Game 1 of the series, as Freddy Peralta struck out 10 across seven scoreless innings en route to a 1-0 Brewers victory.

Will the Brewers stay hot, or will the Braves get back on track? Find out more with our MLB picks and predictions for the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday, May 17.

Braves vs Brewers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Brewers opened as -115 across most books. The line has not seen any movement as of the time of this writing, and the Brewers remain slight favorites. The best price Atlanta can be had for is +105. The total has been set at 8.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Braves vs Brewers predictions

Picks made on 5/17/2022 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Braves vs Brewers game info

Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Date: Tuesday, May 17, 2022
First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin

Braves vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Tucker Davidson (0-0, 16.88 ERA): Lefty Tucker Davidson has recorded only one appearance and was hit hard, as evidenced by his 16.88 ERA across 2.2 innings in relief. This would be the sixth start of his career after spot starts in 2020 and 2021. Across 20 innings with the big club a year ago, he accumulated a 3.60 ERA despite an ugly 6.03 xERA.

Adrian Houser (3-3, 3.86 ERA): Houser is off to another decent start in 2022 after accumulating a 10-6 record and 3.22 ERA across 142.1 innings in 2021. He doesn’t strike out many batters, and has a 7.57 K/9 ratio. Walks are a concern, as he’s issuing a career-high 4.45 free passes per nine innings. His 4% home run to fly ball ratio is due for some regression, as his career mark is above 14%.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. LF (Out), Eddie Rosario LF (Out), Manny Pina C (Out), Kirby Yates RP (Out), Luke Jackson RP (Out), Jay Jackson RP (Out).
Brewers: Willy Adames SS (Questionable), Jandel Gustave RP (Out), Jake Cousins RP (Out), Justin Topa RP (Out), Pedro Severino C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 20-8-2 in the Braves' last 30 games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs Brewers.

Braves vs Brewers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Milwaukee’s lineup has been much better than anticipated heading into the season. The Brew Crew rank sixth in runs scored per game (4.91), sixth in team OPS (.724), and second in home runs (1.39 per game). Howevere, they do rank 12th in wRC+, indicating some regression is possible.

The Brewers have been below average against southpaws this year, ranking 20th with a .218 batting average, although they have shown decent pop with 12 home runs across 298 at-bats against left-handers. The pitching staff has been excellent, surrendering a .215 batting average against — third-best in the MLB.

Houser has a decent ERA for the second straight season, but his underlying numbers are a tad concerning. He’s allowing more hard contact (15.8% hard-hit rate) than you’d typically like to see, although his 3.0% barrel rate is top-notch.

The Braves have been one of the least-profitable teams to back on the moneyline this season. The offense has taken a huge step back, averaging 4.13 runs per game (18th) while batting only .224 (25th). They strike out more than any team in the league, but do rank 13th in wOBA and 16th in wRC+.

Atlanta continues to receive more love in the betting markets than they deserve at this point in the season. They have enough talent to turn things around, but the product on the field hasn’t been pretty. Milwaukee is playing good ball and is being lined close to a pick ‘em, so we’ll back them as short favorites at home.

Prediction: Brewers (-112 at Unibet)

Over/Under analysis

The total is set at 8.5, which is relatively high considering that offense is down across the MLB.

Houser has strung together a decent stretch dating back to last season, managing to keep his ERA below 4.00. His hard-hit rate percentage (15.8%) is concerning, but his low 3% barrel rate is a positive. It’s difficult to know which number to trust more. His 3.37 FIP is strong and he’s managed to limit damage despite a huge drop in his groundball rate (45.7% this year, 59% a year ago). Overall, he has a decent profile and is facing a struggling Braves lineup that is performing below its ability.

The Brewers lineup has been great, but ranks below average against southpaws. We don’t have much data on anticipated Braves starter Tucker Davidson, but he put up mostly good numbers in the minors. The Brewers lineup has been outperforming its ability to start the season.

Both teams have a mediocre bullpen. Atlanta has a 3.59 ERA in relief, while Milwaukee has a 3.78 ERA. This total is a tad high for our liking, so we’ll be playing the Under.

Prediction: Under 8.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Best bet

This total is a bit high for our liking, especially since Tucker Davidson is starting, and Milwaukee has not been great against lefties.

The Atlanta lineup has struggled to perform this season, and we’re going to bet on another low-scoring contest on Tuesday after these teams combined for just one run in the series opener.

Give us the Under as our best bet.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

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