The Toronto Jays have moved from a -230 favorite last night to -165 favorites today vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates, and all of that has to do with today’s starting pitcher matchup.
The Jays will go with a bullpen day that will feature Trevor Richards in the opener role and could hand things off to some sub-par middle relievers. The Pirates will have some great at-bats early to plate runs and two-way scoring is something I’m expecting today.
Find out where my best bet lies today in my free MLB picks and predictions for Jays vs. Pirates on Saturday, September 3.
Blue Jays vs Pirates best odds
Blue Jays vs Pirates picks and predictions
My best bet: Pirates team total Over 3.5 (+100 at Caesars)
The Blue Jays’ strength does certainly not lie with its middle-relief pitching and today that weakness will be exposed.
Trevor Richards will be making his first start since 2020 and just threw 16 pitches on Wednesday in a relief appearance. He will not be in long today and the Jays will have multiple handoffs, which could include Yusei Kikuchi (5.36 ERA) and September call-up Casey Lawrence (8.04 ERA).
The opener is not a system the Jays are familiar with, and interim manager John Schneider also doesn’t have much experience with it on this roster.
The Jays closed as -230 favorites last night, so the obvious pitching situation is priced into today’s -165 ML price for the visitors, but even this Pittsburgh lineup, that has plenty of veteran batters, should find success against fringe MLB relievers.
With Kikuchi’s command issues, I’d rather take a shot at the Pittsburgh team total of 3.5 than its hit total of 7.5. Walks and home runs are the lefty’s M.O.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the 2022 MLB season, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! Sign Up Now
B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only
Blue Jays vs Pirates betting preview
Jump to:
•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
The Jays had a big starting pitching advantage yesterday and closed as heavy -230 road favorites. Today, with opener Trevor Richards taking the bump, the Jays have fallen to -165 after opening at -160.
The Bucs have won just twice over their last 10 games, but one of those was with Roansy Contreras on the mound, and the electric rookie starts again today.
Contreras has been up and down from the minor leagues as the Pirates try to control his workload. But when the prospect has been in, he’s been one of the most exciting rookie pitchers in baseball.
He just blanked a very good Philadelphia lineup on the road in his last start and should have a 90-pitch leash.
He’ll face a Toronto lineup that has scored at least four runs in four straight but is still underachieving offensively and seemingly lacks depth as guys like Whitt Merrifield, Cavan Biggio, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Raimel Tapia are offering nothing at the dish.
To make things worse, Lourdes Gurriel is dealing with a wrist injury and could miss another game, making this a lineup to target for Contreras’ strikeout prop that sits as low as 3.5.
Ultimately, this game will be settled in the later innings, as I see Pittsburgh having an advantage in the earlier frames but the Jays getting to this Pirates bullpen as Contreras likely won’t see the sixth inning.
The Pirates burned their best middle-inning arm in Chase De Jong last night, so it could be an even worse set of relievers the Jays see tonight.
Over/Under analysis
Today's total is up a full run from yesterday and I feel that severe adjustment is warranted. I think the Pittsburgh bats can get to the early Toronto pitching. Richards, Kikuchi, and Lawrence for five or six innings before the big arms come in is not a great recipe for low-scoring baseball.
The bottom of the Toronto lineup isn’t offering much help these days, but Bo Bichette is heating up and is hitting .300 over his last 15 games and went deep last night. Teoscar Hernandez looks much better after a little time off, and these visiting bats will get to tee off in the later innings against a pen that has the fourth-worst ERA in baseball on the season.
This is a game that could see some B-bullpens and September call-ups, which is not great news for the Under.
Hitting conditions will be good at PNC Park with temperatures in the mid-to-high 80s and a slight wind blowing out to left-center field. It’s a big yard and if balls get into the gaps, extra-base hits are a layup. On the season, PNC Park is the fourth-best park for extra-base hits and the sixth-best for contact percentage.
I’m only looking at the Over here, which is the way the market is going after it opened at 8 and immediately got bet up to 8.5.
Blue Jays vs Pirates game info
• Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Saturday, September 3, 2022
• First pitch: 6:35 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, SportsNet-PIT
Starting pitchers
Trevor Richards (3-1, 4.53 ERA): Richards will make the start today but likely won’t go longer than two innings as he just pitched Wednesday out of the pen and hasn’t started a game since 2020. I’m sure John Schneider has a bullpen blueprint for today and that should include Yusei Kikuchi and September call-up Casey Lawrence. It will be an unfamiliar strategy for the Jays today.
Roansy Contreras (4-4, 3.57 ERA): The rookie will be making his fourth start since being recalled as the Pirates try to monitor the prospect’s workload. He's coming off a five-inning shutout performance vs. the Phillies on the road where he allowed just five hits and struck out seven. Contreras is a top prospect in the organization who throws hard and has a filthy slider. He can get hit hard at times but has elite stuff that will play well in the big leagues.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays’ last four games following a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Pirates
