The Seattle Mariners have won just three of their last seven games, but a friendly matchup with the San Diego Padres’ newly-anointed back-end starter could lead to the turnaround they’re looking for.
My Mariners vs. Padres predictions will cover why both offenses should be in prime position to hit the ball against two pitchers with contrasting styles who are uniquely suited to aid both teams at the plate.
Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Friday, May 16.
Mariners vs Padres prediction
My Mariners vs Padres best bet: Over 8.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Far too often, we overlook defense when handicapping a pitching matchup — and there’s a discernable edge to be found by simply doing the legwork there.
The San Diego Padres’ infield ranks dead-last in Outs Above Average, and no other team has come close. The Giants rank 29th with a mark of -9, and San Diego stands at -14 OAA.
This infield has made 18 errors, with the outfield accounting for just three, and that could play a determining factor on Friday.
Stephen Kolek has made just two starts at this level, but already we’re seeing some similarities with how he’s pitched over the course of his career.
The right-hander owns an extremely high 59.5% ground-ball rate, and with that number remaining above 55% at all levels in the past three seasons, we can safely say there will be plenty of balls hit on the ground.
The Seattle Mariners rank five spots higher in OPS to ground-ball pitchers this season than the reverse.
Kolek has never been a big-time strikeout arm, either, and he’s had some issues with walks at his stops, which have persisted so far in a limited sample at a clip of 7.7%.
Seattle’s been victimized a bit by strikeouts in the last couple of weeks, but remains patient at the dish with a bunch of walks.
I’m equally sour on Mariners SP Logan Evans, who has gone the opposite direction and lost the ground-ball touch we saw in the minor leagues.
Pitching to a full complement of fly balls at Petco Park isn’t the worst idea, but the Padres do rip apart fly-ballers with the fifth-best OPS in baseball in that split.
On top of that, the youngster isn’t missing many bats and has experienced a huge influx of walks, making this matchup against one of the best offenses in the league a tough one.
He’s also been fortunate to come home with his 3.60 ERA after one error led to five unearned runs in his second start.
This should be an excellent spot for both offenses.
Mariners vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9
Cal Raleigh 2+ total bases
Logan Evans Under 15.5 outs recorded
We can be certain that Kolek will pitch to plenty of ground balls given that’s what he’s done for many years now at all levels, and while Evans has pitched to a ton of fly balls, I’m not as confident there as he’s been a ground-baller throughout his brief career in the minors.
With that, we’ll look into Mariners who have seen gains against ground-ballers, and the choice in my eyes would seem to be Cal Raleigh.
Not only is he red hot with a 1.041 OPS this month and two or more total bases in his last two contests, but he’s also leading this team with 32 total bases against ground-ball pitchers. He’s hitting .306 and slugging .889 in this split against marks of .239 and .448 versus fly-ballers.
I don’t see Evans making it past five frames even if he somehow survives this tough matchup. There’s little value to be found in shorting his strikeout numbers, so I think this is the way to go.
Mariners vs Padres odds
Mariners vs Padres live odds
Mariners vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Seattle +126 | San Diego -148
- Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-172) | San Diego -1.5 (+142)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Mariners vs Padres trend
The Padres have hit the F5 moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+7.70 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Padres.
How to watch Mariners vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Friday, 5-16-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Logan Evans (1-1, 6.60 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Stephen Kolek (2-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Mariners vs Padres latest injuries
Mariners vs Padres weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
