Yesterday was a +1.35-unit day with a chance for the sweep, but things got out of hand in Los Angeles.
I’ll take a 2-1 SU day every single time, and a big Friday today could put the week in the black. It’s a full slate with lots of fixings.
These are my three favorite MLB picks for May 16.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 16
Ryan u17.5 outs (+125)
Francis o4.5 Ks (+117)
Horton u4.5 Ks (+112)
Today's SP best bets
Twins vs. Brewers
The angle: Ryan has to be very efficient to get 18 outs with his low pitch count.
The move: Joe Ryan Under 17.5 outs (+125 at bet365)
Joe Ryan is a great pitcher but he is not a 100-pitch pitcher right now in his career.
He has a road start vs. the Brewers today, and THE BAT is projecting just 91 pitches and 16.7 outs. It is one of the best +EV pitcher out plays from the projections.
Ryan has topped 95 pitches just two times this season and hit this Under in four of his first five starts before hitting the Over three times in a row.
He threw just 76 pitches in his last turn Over 18 outs, so the Twins have very little interest in pushing him past the sixth inning, if he does get there at all.
The plus money here is the appetizing part. I’d buy this to +100/+105.
Tigers vs. Jays
The angle: Francis had a cluster of bad starts but looks to be past the issues.
The move: Bowden Francis Over 4.5 strikeouts (+117 at BetRivers)
This is a bit of an outlier price but the widely available +110 is still good here with THE BAT projecting 4.8 Ks for Bowden Francis.
This price might be factoring in a small-sample rough patch the right-hander just snapped out of, where he allowed 14 runs over a three-game stretch (12 innings) and struck out just five batters. Looking at his other five starts, he has 25 punchouts across 29 innings and hit this Over four times.
His career numbers show a pitcher that can get deep and average nearly a K/inning. He has shown a lot of efficiency in the past, and 18 outs and five strikeouts is a safe projection vs. the Tigers, who still strikeout at an above-average rate.
I think Francis is past some small-sample struggles.
White Sox vs. Cubs
The angle: A low pitch count and 20mph winds could make for a tough first MLB start.
The move: Cade Horton Under 4.5 strikeouts (+112 at BetRivers)
This is a great buy to -105/+100 with today’s conditions at Wrigley.
There is some risk, as it’s the White Sox, but the matchup is always priced in. Cade Horton is dealing with massive winds blowing out at Wrigley today with sustained winds of 20mph out to left and even bigger gusts.
Horton made his MLB debut in a bulk relief role as the Cubs did not want him to face the heart of the Mets lineup multiple times, which shows there is a little lack of trust. He also has to battle the nerves of a first start at home.
He’s a first-round pick who struck out 33 batters over 29 innings at Triple-A this year, not mind-blowing K numbers. He is projected for Under 80 pitches, which is another good angle, and THE BAT is projecting 4.5 Ks.
It’s also a great way to get some Friday afternoon action on the card.
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