Today's Best NRFI/YRFI Bets for Saturday, April 26

Diamondbacks SP Merrill Kelly and Braves SP Grant Holmes have combined for some impressive YRFI results through the early part of the season, and our MLB betting picks expect that to continue tonight.

Eric Rosales - Contributor at Covers.com
Eric Rosales • Betting Analyst
Apr 26, 2025 • 11:35 ET • 4 min read
Grant Holmes Atlanta Braves MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Grant Holmes of the Atlanta Braves in MLB action.

It’s not just a full boat in Major League Baseball on Saturday — it’s overflowing with games.

Thanks to rainouts on Friday, we’ve got a pair of doubleheaders on a day when every team was already playing. Your options for MLB picks on April 26 are endless as you select your best NRFI bets and YRFI bets.

This prop is simple, and results come quick: just pick the matchup where you think the two teams will combine for at least one run in the first inning or not.

Best NRFI/YRFI bets today

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NRFI/YRFI bets for April 26

Red Sox at Guardians: YRFI (-105 at ProphetX)

The Boston Red Sox are the current leaders in YRFIs, with their games having a first inning score in five straight. The Red Sox are also a Top 10 team in scoring first inning runs this season at a 33.3% clip.

In this case, their starting pitcher in Tanner Houck may be the one who delivers the winning wager.

A first inning run has been scored in four straight Houck starts, with Houck himself surrendering at least one in each of those starts. No surprise that he’s 0-2 with a 7.66 ERA, and the BoSox have lost four of the five games he’s started this season.

The Cleveland Guardians are Bottom 7 in games with a run scored in the opening frame, but they have had it happen in two straight games.

Phillies at Cubs: YRFI (+130 at ProphetX)

You would think the Chicago Cubs, tied for the MLB lead for fewest games with a first-inning run would be a lock for an NRFI, but the matchup matters. And the starting pitchers for both the Philadelphia Phillies and Cubs have seen a lot of action in their starts, early.

Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo has allowed just five total earned runs in four starts in April, but three of those games have produced a first-inning score: two by his own team, and one Luzardo allowed against the Braves.

Ben Brown has allowed just 11 earned runs in five starts this season, but three of his starts have seen explosive first innings. His own team has gotten him off to great beginnings, building him leads of one, two, and four runs after just one inning of work.

Look for this trend to continue Saturday at Wrigley.

Braves at Diamondbacks: YRFI (-120 at ProphetX)

Let’s wrap with a team that loves to get on the board early.

The Arizona Diamondbacks were baseball’s leader in first inning runs scored in 2024, and they’re tied for third in 2025, looking up at only the Orioles and the Yankees. They’ve seen a first run plated in 15 of their 26 games this season, which ranks Top 7 in the majors.

Three of Merrill Kelly’s last four starts have had an opening inning run, with his team contributing twice, and the visitors lighting him up twice.

They’re taking on an Atlanta Braves team that has the second-most YRFIs this season. Starter Grant Holmes has seen a first inning run plate in four of his five starts this season, three from his own team getting him off to a good start. 

There’s too much evidence not bet a YRFI for this one.

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Eric Rosales - Covers
Betting Analyst

Eric has been involved in sports media in many different capacities since graduating from journalism school in 1999, back when getting your own column in a newspaper was still considered a thing. He doubled down and graduated from broadcast journalism school five years later, which led to a move to Toronto and a career with The Sports Network (TSN). From behind-the-scenes production work, he moved into the digital realm, where he had his own hoops column (At the Buzzer), while regularly live streaming and chatting with fans during broadcasts as the character known as LeBlog James. He was also a key contributor to TSN and CTV’s Olympic programming during the 2012 London Games.

Eric eventually found his way into the sports betting field in 2016 and has been a mainstay ever since. He was tagged on Twitter as a Top 10 NBA sharp during the 2021 season and has been interviewed about basketball and his handicapping process on shows from Vancouver to India. Eric is now a jack-of-all-sports at Covers, where his predictions span the alphabet soup: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, F1, WNBA, Euro, and Copa.

When making picks, he focuses on finding value first and foremost, and ensuring readers have all the information they need to make an informed choice.

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