Best NRFI Bets Today - Friday, July 11

Today's MLB slate features electrifying Blue Jays offense that may be imbalanced by Max Scherzer on the mound as we dive into our expert MLB NRFI/YFRI picks for Friday's MLB action.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Jul 11, 2025 • 12:45 ET • 4 min read
Max Scherzer Toronto Blue Jays MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer (31) throws a pitch.

The Toronto Blue Jays have won 10 of their last 11 games thanks to a red-hot offense. However, they'll have a banged-up and struggling Max Scherzer on the mound tonight.

That's why my MLB picks are betting on a run to be scored in the first inning of tonight's matchup against the A's. Check out my other best YRFI and NRFI bets for Friday, July 11 below.

Best NRFI/YRFI bets today

  • Mets Mets vs Royals Royals: NRFI
  • Phillies Phillies vs Padres Padres: NRFI/
  • Blue Jays Blue Jays vs Athletics Athletics: YRFI

JOIN THRILLZZ - AMERICA'S SOCIAL SPORTSBOOK

Download Thrillzz, today using the code COVERS and get a 400% match on your first coins purchase — plus 60,000 free coins and $3 in free sweeps coins!

Thrillz

Learn more with our comprehensive Thrillzz review.

Available in all states excluding AL, GA, ID, IN, IA, KY, LA, MI, MN, MS, NV, OH, SC, and WA.
18+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

NRFI/YRFI bets for July 11

Mets at Royals: NRFI (Play at Thrillzz)

The New York Mets are 20th in the majors in run first inning percentage (27.7%) with that number dipping to 23.4% on the road.

Today they'll be at spacious Kauffman Stadium to face Kansas City Royals righty Michael Wacha. Wacha does an excellent job at generating soft contact and has pitched to a 2.81 ETA in nine starts at home. 

The Mets respond with Kodai Senga who has a 1.47 ERA through 13 starts. Senga is returning to the mound after a month on the IL so he might be on a pitch limit. That said, he should have no problem getting through the first frame against a K.C. lineup that has an OPS of just .655 at home. 

  • Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network Kansas City | SNY
  • Bet: NRFI

Phillies at Padres: NRFI (Play at Thrillzz)

The Philadelphia Phillies are giving the ball to Ranger Suarez who has a sizzling 1.99 ERA through 12 starts. The southpaw is in the top 10th percentile in xERA (2.57), barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard hit rate. 

Suarez faces a San Diego Padres lineup that has an OPS of just .662 over the last 30 days and has struggled to hit lefties all year. Meanwhile, the Phillies have an OPS of .693 on the road and they'll be at pitcher-friendly Petco Park tonight.

They'll take on Friars rookie Ryan Bergert who has a 2.67 ERA through 27 innings and is returning to the hill after short stint on the IL. In five starts Bergert hasn't allowed a single run in the first inning while holding opponents to a batting average of just .063.

  • Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: MLBN
  • Bet: NRFI

Blue Jays at Athletics: YRFI (Play at Thrillzz)

The Athletics are eighth in the majors in slugging percentage (.415) while ranking seventh in run first inning percentage (31.9%).

They should be able to get to Toronto Blue Jays starter Max Scherzer who is a shell of his former self and has been dealing with inflammation on his right (throwing) thumb. The 40-year-old has pitched to a 9.00 ERA with an OBA of .375 in the first inning this year.

That said, the Jays offense has been on fire, batting .282 while plating 5.93 runs per game over the last 15 days. They should mash against Luis Severino who has a 5.30 ERA through 19 starts and sits in the bottom 10th percentile in xBA (.287).

  • Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: NBCSCA | Sportsnet 
  • Bet: YRFI

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic

Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez. You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports. Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

Popular Content

Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo