Astros vs White Sox ALDS Game 4 Picks and Predictions: Rodon Looks To Force Winner-Take-All Game 5

The Chicago White Sox were able to stave off elimination in their American League Division Series by outslugging the Houston Astros 12-6 in last night's Game 3.

Now, Chicago will have the luxury of handing the ball to arguably its best starter as the Pale Hose try and even the series. Or does hot-hitting Houston have value as an underdog as it tries to reach yet another ALCS?

Find out with our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Game 4 of the ALDS between the Astros and White Sox on Monday, October 11.

Astros vs White Sox odds

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Astros vs White Sox picks

• White Sox ML (-125)
• Under 4.5 Five-Inning Total (+100)

Picks made on 10/11/2021 at 11:39 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Astros vs White Sox game info

• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Monday, October 11, 2021
• Time: 3:37 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1

Astros vs White Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jose Urquidy (8-3, 3.62 ERA): Urquidy has been solid for the Astros for this season but missed most of the second half of the season with a should injury. In six starts since coming off the IL, the right-hander has a 4.25 ERA and has allowed five home runs over his last three starts.

Carlos Rodon (13-5, 2.37 ERA): Rodon bet on himself this offseason and boy did it pay off. The lefty finished the year with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP but he also has had to deal with injuries in the second half, making just six starts since August.

Astros vs White Sox series odds

Astros: -360
White Sox: +295

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Astros: Rafael Montero RP (Out).
White Sox: No key injuries. 
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The White Sox are 7-1 in their last eight games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. White Sox.

Astros vs White Sox predictions

White Sox ML (-125)

The White Sox saved their season by exploding for 12 runs in Game 3 against the Astros and they’ll need to keep swinging some hot sticks if they hope to force a winner-take-all Game 5.

The matchup against Urquidy is a tough one, but the right-hander has not looked like his best self since his shoulder injury, which cost him the majority of the second half of the season. Urquidy throws his fastball more the 50 percent of the time and is allowing an expected batting average of .259 — and faces a White Sox team that ranks fifth in batting average and ninth in OPS when it comes to facing right-handed pitching.

While the White Sox haven’t really been able to slow down the potent Astros offense to this point, if there is some who has a chance of shutting them down, it’s Rodon.

The lefty has been effective all season long and he has bounced back well from his injury, pitching to a 1.93 ERA and limiting opponents to a .178 batting average since the start of August.

In two starts against Houston this season, Rodon has limited them to one run on four hits while striking out 18 (which is hard to do against a team that strikes out the least in the majors) over 14 innings of work. Rodon has also held the big Astros bats (Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, and Yordan Alvarez) to just 17 for 84 (.202) over the course of his career.

So, with two good offenses and two questionable bullpens, we’ll take the value with the better pitcher as a short home favorite.

Under 4.5 Five-Inning Total (+100)

It was inevitable that we finally got a total of 9.0 for this matchup, considering there have been 38 runs plated over the first three games of this series. But the starting pitching is good enough to consider the other side in this one.

We already talked about how Rodon has a chance to shut down the Astros but Urquidy is in a good spot to do so as well. In one start against the White Sox this season, Urquidy allowed just two runs on four hits over seven innings in a meeting back in June.

Since the bullpens have had their issues this series, focusing on the starters here is the way to go.

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