Rays vs Red Sox ALDS Game 4 Picks and Predictions: Boston's Playoff Home Winning Streak Continues

After being written off following an ugly Game 1 loss, the Red Sox are one win away from ending the Rays season. As slight MLB betting favorites at Fenway Park for Game 4, we like Boston to complete the upset in their ALDS matchup.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Oct 11, 2021 • 15:02 ET • 4 min read
Christian Vazquez Boston Red Sox MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox face off in Game 4 of their ALDS series on Monday night with Boston looking to win and advance to the next round.

The BoSox won in extra innings last night and oddsmakers are expecting another tight game with the Rays installed as slim -105 road underdogs for this contest.

Here are our best free Rays vs. Red Sox picks and predictions for Monday, October 11, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. 

Rays vs Red Sox odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Rays vs Red Sox picks

Picks made on 10/11/2021 at 10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Rays vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Monday, October 11, 2021
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET

Rays vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Collin McHugh (6-1, 1.55 ERA): This will be a bullpen game for Tampa Bay as McHugh starts it off, with Michael Wacha (3-5, 5.05 ERA) likely to see a few innings afterward. Both right-handers were hit hard when they came out of the bullpen against Boston on Friday, with McHugh giving up a pair of dingers and three runs in less than two innings while Wacha surrendered six runs in 2 2-3 innings. 

Eduardo Rodriguez (13-8, 4.74 ERA): Eduardo Rodriguez will start in Game 3 after the previously slated starter, Nick Pivetta, ended up throwing 67 pitches out of the bullpen last night. Rodriguez benefited from plenty of run support during the regular season but posted the highest ERA (4.74), WHIP (1.39), and opponent batting average (.277) numbers of his six-year career. He started Game 1 last Thursday and gave up two early runs before getting the hook midway through the second inning.

Rays vs Red Sox series odds

Rays: +225
Red Sox: -275


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Rays: Ryan Thompson RP (Out), Jeffrey Springs RP (Out).
Red Sox: Josh Taylor RP (Out), Phillips Valdez RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings in Boston. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Red Sox.

Rays vs Red Sox predictions

Boston wasn't supposed to win this series against the Rays, who ended the regular season with the best record in the American League, and after the Red Sox were blanked 5-0 in Game 1, an early exit seemed inevitable. But the rumors of their demise were greatly exaggerated as their bats came alive with a 14-6 victory in Game 2 and they edged the Rays with a Christian Vasquez walk-off home run in the bottom of the 13th inning yesterday.

Now, the BoSox are on the brink of sending the Rays packing and get to play at Fenway, where they are 5-0 in their last five postseason contests. The Red Sox will send veteran Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound with Chris Sale slated for an appearance out of the bullpen. Rodriguez has struggled this season, pitching to a 4.74 ERA across 31 starts, and he posted an almost identical 4.71 ERA in four starts against Tampa Bay.

However, Tampa Bay's pitching situation isn't any better. The Rays had been getting strong pitching from their entire staff all season but now it's crunch time and their lack of experienced workhorse starters is becoming an issue. They lost both Blake Snell and Charlie Morton during the offseason, had their best starter Tyler Glasnow undergo Tommy John surgery, and traded away Rich Hill in July, then omitted Ryan Yarbrough from their ALDS roster after he struggled in September.

Their bullpen is stretched thin and will be facing off against a Boston lineup that is red-hot and finished the regular season with an OPS of .814 in September and October while boasting a .937 OPS this series. The Rays are dangerous at the plate themselves but Boston tends to make better contact and hit the ball harder, finishing the season ranked second in the majors in both sweet spot percentage and hard-hit percentage. 

With momentum seemingly on the side of the home team right now, back the Sox on the moneyline. 

The Rays had one of the best bullpens in the majors during the regular season but they have become overly reliant on their relievers which is a major problem coming off a 13-inning contest where nine pitchers were utilized. Arms get tired and playing mix and match in every inning is kind of like playing with fire when you're going up against a lineup as loaded as Boston's.

Led by Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Kyle Schwarber, the Red Sox have power throughout their lineup and led the majors with 5.80 runs per game at home during the regular season. That said, the Rays are no slouches at the plate themselves and paced the majors in scoring on the road with 5.63 runs/game.

They should be able to make contact against Rodriguez, who had a 5.95 ERA in 13 starts at home this season, including a rough outing at Fenway against the Rays last month when he gave up six runs in 3 2-3 innings. With the Over going 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings between these AL East foes in Boston, back the Over again tonight. 

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