The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers will renew their engaging rivalry tonight as both division-trailing clubs will send rookie pitchers to the mound and the MLB Odds have the Dodgers sitting as -140 home favorites with a total of 8.5 leaning to the Over.
With JP France pitching above his numbers and projecting for over three runs allowed and under 15 outs, should bettors be fading the older rookie in a tough matchup with solid hitting conditions at Dodger Stadium?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Dodgers on Friday, June 23.
Astros vs Dodgers odds
Astros vs Dodgers predictions
Not only does JP France’s Under 17.5 outs project well, THE BAT doesn’t even have him getting through the fifth inning. The projection for the Houston rookie is 13.76 outs, making it not only the best +EV play in the game but one of the best bets on the entire Friday slate.
France has been pitching above his numbers and that ERA should catch up to a 4.98 FIP which is backed by a lack of strikeouts, plenty of walks, and home runs. THE BAT has him projected as a near-5.00 ERA pitcher for the season and considering the matchup and more solid hitting conditions at Dodger Stadium (11-mph winds blowing out to right field).
France’s max innings in any season is 110 from last year and he has already accumulated 67 frames this season. He’s more of an 80-90-pitch starter and with Houston off yesterday, might have a shorter leash with a rested bullpen behind him.
His .246 BABIP isn’t likely to hold and a 10% strike-swinging rate isn’t blowing batters away. His fastball average is also down 2 mph from over his last four starts.
This 17.5 total is an out too high on a modest projection and if there was an ability to ladder Under outs, this would be one of the best spots. THE BAT has this Under winning 81.6% of the time and the -125 juice is a cherry on top. I’d play this to -175 which at that point might move to 16.5 and the Under at that number at plus money would also be an easy choice.
My best bet: JP France Under 17.5 outs
Astros vs Dodgers same-game parlay
France Under 17.5 outs
Smith Over 1.5 total bases
Peralta Under 0.5 hits
France is headed for a regression of his numbers and the Los Angeles Dodgers are a good opponent to do so. France's 3.5 earned run market is very telling of the outing that is projected for the rookie starter.
Will Smith has some of the best value for offensive props on the LA side and I'll take his Over 1.5 total bases (projects for 1.9) as opposed to his RBI which is just +160.
I'm adding David Peralta to go hitless which bumps this SGP to +1,200. It works against the France Under 17.5 outs, but the LA outfielder is a big pinch-hit risk (32%) and could also draw a walk with France's control issues. If France gets pulled early, Peralta could also see the bench if he sees a lefty.
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Astros vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Los Angeles Dodgers have not forgotten about the Astros and their cheating ways from 2017. There aren’t a lot of leftover players from that season but considering the Dodgers are sitting in third place in the NL West, there will be some urgency tonight for the home side that opened at -150 but has gotten longer moving to -140 by this afternoon.
LA is still without Max Muncy and the offense has managed seven runs over its last four games while failing to plate more than five in nine consecutive games. However, the Houston offense is also not in great shape heading into tonight.
Since Yordan Alvarez went down on June 9, the Astros are 5-7 SU and have been held to one run or fewer four times. The LA offense is scoring nearly a full run more per game than Houston and its strength — the longball — could be on display tonight.
The weather is favoring hitters today with double-digit winds blowing out which is why France’s projections are so poor. THE BAT projects 1.11 home runs allowed by the Houston starter who has given up eight long balls over just 47 innings this year. LA has the starting pitching edge with Emmet Sheehan who looked really good in his hitless debut last week but there are some concerns with the bullpen despite the day off yesterday.
The middle relief of the Dodgers is a scary ride and with Sheehan projecting for under 15 outs, bettors might have a better experience betting the Dodgers on the F5 moneyline which is the same as the full-game ML. Sheehan threw six hitless innings in his debut and the Dodgers lost 7-5.
THE BAT is also projecting over 5.5 earned runs between both starters who are expected to get fewer than 15 outs. A parlay of both starters to not record the win is paying +140 at bet365 and the F5 Over 4.5 and full game Over 8.5 also project well. The total opened at 9 and hit 8.5 but is seeing some more money on the Over with some o8.5s at -115 still available at the time of writing.
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Trend to know
The Astros are 1-5 in their last six road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Dodgers
Astros vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, June 23, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
J.P. France (2-2, 3.42 ERA): France will be making his ninth start of the season and might be punching above his numbers. He had 51 walks in 110 innings at Triple-A last season and most projections have him as a 4.50 to 5.00 ERA pitcher. His near-5.00 FIP is based on a lack of strikeouts (7.23 K/9), a lot of walks, and some trouble with the long ball (1.52 HR/9). The Astros are 3-5 SU in his eight starts and THE BAT is projecting 82 pitches, 13.7 outs, 3.64 strikeouts, and 3.18 earned runs.
Emmet Sheehan (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Sheehan went six innings on 89 pitches in his debut and held the Giants hitless while walking a pair and striking out three. He will be on seven days of rest and predominantly throws a heavy fastball that has a big horizontal break — 13.1 inches which are 51% more than the league average. THE BAT is projecting 83 pitches, 14.8 outs, 4.73 strikeouts, and 2.48 earned runs.
