Angels vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Pitching Change-Up Gives L.A. Value

American League West rivals the Los Angeles Angels and the Houston Astros open up an intriguing four-game set at Minute Maid Park on Thursday night.

The Astros have shaken off their World Series hangover and climbed to second place in the West. While the Angels are still trying to find their wings early on and will try to gain some ground on Houston in this series.

The Angels are MLB odds underdogs for tonight's opener as they hand the ball to southpaw Reid Detmers but could be giving us some value with the Astros calling up Ronel Blanco from Triple-A to start this game.

I break down the matchup and bring you my best bet in MLB picks and predictions Angels vs. Astros.

Angels vs Astros odds

Angels vs Astros predictions

Reid Detmers has definitely flashed some potential this season. The 23-year-old lefty has great velocity on his fastball. His strikeout numbers are solid. And his 3.61 FIP and 4.45 expected ERA mean he has pitched better than his 4.93 ERA suggests.

Detmers ranks in the 76th percentile or better when it comes to barrel rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. And tonight, he gets an interesting matchup against the Astros.

While the Astros had a solid month of May, Houston’s bats have not really shown up against southpaw pitchers. Houston ranks 21st in batting average, 18th in OPS, and 19th in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers.

Detmers also has solid numbers vs. the Astros in his short career. He’s made four starts against Houston since 2021 and he has a solid 3.98 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and more than a strikeout per inning in those games. 

Meanwhile, the Astros counter Detmers with 29-year-old Ronel Blanco. The right-hander made the team out of camp as the team’s long reliever, but the Astros sent him down in May to stretch him out as a starter.

Blanco mostly uses a fastball-slider combination. He has a 0.56 ERA in four Triple-A starts, but his time in the Big Leagues did not go as smoothly. While striking out 16 in 12 innings, he also had a 4.85 expected ERA and a 1.97 WHIP.

Tonight, he faces an Angels lineup that is in a bit of a groove. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout are both coming off a game where they hit dingers. Overall, they rank eighth in batting average, ninth in OPS, and 10th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching.

I like the Angels to get off to a good start in this matchup and have a lead through five innings.

My best bet: Angels 5-inning three-way result (+160 at FanDuel)

Angels vs Astros moneyline analysis

The Astros were roughly -170 home favorites when Framber Valdez was expected to start. When Blanco named the starter, the Astros were reposted in the -150 range. It’s safe to assume that I like the Angels as underdogs in this matchup since I like them to get off to a good start, but there are a few things holding me back.

The Astros are favored here because the offense has been rolling the last few weeks — basically, since the return of Jose Altuve. But two be fair, that stretch features six games against the Oakland A’s. So you have to take some of those results with a grain of salt.

The other edge the Astros have is in the bullpen. Houston’s relievers rank fourth in ERA and WHIP and sixth in opponent batting average. So, if Blanco gets in trouble, don’t be surprised if Dusty Baker turns the game over to the bullpen quickly. Particularly, considering he has Mr. Quality Start himself, Valdez, going tomorrow.

Angels vs Astros Over/Under analysis

The total for this American League West matchup opened at 8.5 but got adjusted by a half-run to 9 following the pitching change. But now, I think that number may be a little high. 

I’ve already gone over why I think Detmers will have success in this matchup. Plus, the Astros are hitting just .237 and scoring just 3.85 runs per game when facing left-handed pitching this season. 

The trends are also in the Under’s favor as well. The Under is 9-4 in Astros’ last 13 vs. a team with a winning record and 5-1 in the Angels’ last six games vs. a team with a winning record.

These two teams played to the Under in two of their first three meetings this season, seeing an average of 7.67 runs per game.

Angels vs Astros game info

Starting pitchers

Reid Detmers (0-4, 4.93 ERA): If nothing else the lefty has been consistent. Detmers hasn't allowed more than four runs in any of his nine starts this season, and three or fewer in seven of those nine.

Ronel Blanco (0-0, 4.50 ERA): Blanco impressed enough in Spring Training to earn a spot on the Astros staff as a long reliever. But they sent him down in early May to stretch him out as a starter.

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The Angels are 8-1 in their last nine during Game 1 of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Astros

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