Sportsbooks are struggling to handicap one of the best Rookie of the Year races in NBA history, thanks to the excellence of Kon Knueppel and Cooper Flagg.
Flagg is currently the odds-on favorite at major sportsbooks, despite Knueppel, his roommate at Duke, claiming a massive lead as recently as Sunday.
Key Takeaways
- Odds flipped to Flagg after two huge games, despite a recent poll among voters favoring Knueppel.
- Last year’s Rookie of the Year winner (Stephon Castle) was picked fourth, just like Knueppel.
- The Charlotte Hornets face three top-five defenses to close their season.
Knueppel was a strong favorite to take home the NBA’s award for the most impressive first-timer in the league. That was compounded Friday when ESPN shared a straw poll of 100 league media members conducted Monday through Wednesday last week.
The results showed that Knueppel received 80 first-place, 19 second-place, and one third-place vote, resulting in 458 total points. Flagg received 20 first-place votes, 79 seconds, and one third, for 338 points, only 74% of his college teammate’s total. Philadelphia 76ers guard VJ Edgecombe was third with 98 points.
The results of the poll empowered DraftKings to shorten Knueppel’s odds from -250 on April 1 to -300 two days later when the results were released.
Knueppel became an even larger favorite (-330) on Sunday morning, despite Flagg becoming the youngest player in NBA history to score at least 50 points (51) on a Friday night loss to the Orlando Magic. Those odds gave him an implied 76.7% chance to win the award, while Flagg’s +230 odds translated to a 30.3% probability.
Everything changed on Monday, one day after Flagg followed his 51-point explosion with 45 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds in a nationally televised matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers. He flipped to a -200 (66.7% chance) favorite at DraftKings overnight, and Knueppel ballooned to +140 (41.7% chance).
Rookie of the Year Odds movement for Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel over the past 2 weeks:
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) April 6, 2026
3/23:
Knueppel -210
Flagg +160
3/25:
Knueppel -185
Flagg +145
3/27:
Knueppel -210
Flagg +165
3/28:
Knueppel -255
Flagg +195
3/29:
Knueppel -240
Flagg +185
3/30:
Knueppel -250
Flagg… pic.twitter.com/PQz6VM8THM
The total instability in the Rookie of the Year odds leaves everything to play for during the final week of the regular season. The Dallas Mavericks still have four games remaining, while the Charlotte Hornets will play three.
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Flagg, Knueppel can’t shake each other
The back-and-forth between the former Duke Blue Devils isn’t anything new. The pair took turns jostling for position on the board, although Knueppel truly hit his stride during Flagg’s near-monthlong absence from Feb. 10 through March 5.
There are strong merits to both players’ cases. Flagg averaged 21.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, putting him on pace to become the fourth rookie since the NBA-ABA merger to average 20/6/4, joining Luka Doncic, Michael Jordan, and Larry Bird.
He’s also had several individual moments of history, such as only being 19 years and 103 days old when he dropped his first 50-piece.
COOPER FLAGG ERUPTED AGAIN ‼️
— NBA (@NBA) April 6, 2026
TONIGHT: 45 PTS, 8 REB, 9 AST, 2 STL
FRIDAY: 51 PTS, 6 REB, 3 STL
HE'S NOW THE YOUNGEST PLAYER (19 YEARS, 105 DAYS) IN NBA HISTORY TO RECORD 45+ PTS IN BACK-TO-BACK GAMES 🤯 pic.twitter.com/Tdt1JYviCv
Knueppel put up a stat line of 18.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, while already establishing himself as a historically efficient shooter. Even more impressively, he produced his 48/43/86 shooting splits while leading the NBA in made threes (265) at the time of writing, having already set the rookie record for made threes in a season.
He also started all but one game for the Hornets amid their remarkable franchise turnaround, helping to lead them to a 27-8 record since Jan. 22 that was the second-best mark in the league during that span.
Although the team record does not normally factor into the Rookie of the Year race, the Hornets only need to win one more game to have their best season as a franchise since 2015-16.
Kon Knueppel breaks the Charlotte Hornets franchise record for 3PM in a single season 🔥
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) April 3, 2026
▪️ KON KNUEPPEL: 261+
▪️ Kemba Walker: 260
▪️ Jason Richardson: 243
History for the rookie 👏 pic.twitter.com/UNRTu1AXng
The final days ahead
Everything about the ongoing NBA Rookie of the Year race has made it clear that the race won’t be over until the winner is officially announced. Even the sportsbooks have had an uncharacteristically difficult time staying on top of the oscillating battle.
Flagg and the Mavericks finish their season by facing the Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs, and Chicago Bulls. Those teams rank 18th, 10th, third, and 23rd in defensive rating, respectively, giving Flagg a varying degree of difficulty to bolster his final numbers.
Knueppel and the Hornets have a tough finish to the year, with matchups against the Boston Celtics, Detroit Pistons, and New York Knicks, who rank third, fourth, and fifth in defensive rating.
