Prediction market traders are backing the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays to win their respective championship series in the penultimate round of the MLB postseason.
- The Dodgers lead both Kalshi and Polymarket to win the NLCS and World Series.
- The Rays are favored to win the ALCS despite not knowing their opponent yet.
- The Brewers hold a higher World Series title probability than the Rays on both platforms.
Three of the four teams in the league championship series are confirmed: the Milwaukee Brewers, Dodgers and Rays. The final spot will go to the winner of Saturday’s Game 5 between the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox.
Kalshi’s NLCS prediction market has the World Series favorite Dodgers as the unsurprising pick to win the seven-game series and league pennant. Their 61% chance at the time of writing is the highest probability of any NL team across the entire season.
Kalshi traders give the Brewers a 40% chance to win the NLCS and advance to the World Series.
Polymarket traders see the matchup similarly, giving the Dodgers a 60% chance and the Brewers 40%.
The two contenders finished with the best records in baseball - the Brewers at 103-59 and the Dodgers at 100-62. Both also won their divisional series matchups 3-1 against the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves, respectively.
The Brewers came out on the better end of the regular-season series, 4-3. They lost two of three games played from May 22-24 but won three of four from Aug. 13-16.
Rays favored in ALCS
The ALCS matchup has not been decided at the time of writing - but to some degree, that’s irrelevant to MLB playoff prediction markets.
Kalshi traders have awarded the Rays a 63% chance of winning the pennant, while the Guardians (22%) and White Sox (16%) are lagging behind. The implication is that the winpner of Saturday’s Game 5 showdown will still enter the ALCS as an underdog.
A similar situation has developed at Polymarket, where the Rays are even larger favorites. Their 65% likelihood of winning the ALCS dwarfs the Guardians (21%) and the White Sox (14%).
The Rays skipped into the ALCS by sweeping the New York Yankees, outscoring their opponents 10-5 across the three games.
Tampa Bay also finished with the American League's best regular-season record at 98-64, winning its season series against the Guardians 5-1 and the White Sox 4-2.
More than $25 million has been traded so far on the ALCS and NLCS winner markets across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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World Series prediction markets
The upcoming championship series will determine which teams earn a chance to compete in the World Series. Kalshi and Polymarket traders have already traded a combined $164 million in World Series markets.
Kalshi’s World Series market, with $120.2 million in trading volume, gives the Dodgers a 44% chance to win the title. The Brewers are next at 24%, followed by the Rays at 22%, the Guardians at 6.3%, and the White Sox at 4.5%.
Polymarket's World Series market has $43.8 million in trading volume and is also led by the Dodgers at 43%. The Brewers follow at 24%, the Rays at 23%, the Guardians at 6%, and the White Sox at 4%.
