Arsenal is a strong favorite to repeat as English Premier League champions after it broke a 22-year title drought last season.
Perennial title challenger Manchester City is second in betting odds in the first year of the post-Pep Guardiola era, followed by the rest of the “Big Six.”
Key Takeaways
- Arsenal hadn’t won the EPL since going invincible in 2003-04.
- Man City is in its first year since 2015 without Pep Guardiola.
- Five teams have odds shorter than +1,000.
| Team | Title Odds |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | +140 |
| Man City | +280 |
| Liverpool | +550 |
| Man United | +700 |
| Chelsea | +800 |
Arsenal topped last season’s Premier League table with 85 points coming from 26 wins, seven draws, and five losses. Man City (78 points), Manchester United (71 points), Aston Villa (65 points), and Liverpool (60 points) rounded out the top five and qualified for the Champions League.
EPL title odds this time around predict the same top two. The Gunners (+140) already have an implied 41.7% chance of winning the league before a ball has been kicked, while Man City (+280; 26.3% chance) is the standalone top challenger, according to FanDuel.
Liverpool, the only other club to win the Premier League since 2016-17, is third at +550 (15.4% chance). Man United (+700) has a 12.5% chance of topping the table after it already exceeded expectations in the last league cycle, and Chelsea (+800) has an 11.1% likelihood of capturing its first league trophy in 10 years.
There are only two other teams with a realistic chance of competing for the EPL title. Those teams are Tottenham (+2,200) — which finished 17th, one spot above relegation, in consecutive seasons — and Aston Villa (+3,500), the fourth-place finishers of last year.
No team other than Man City has been able to repeat as EPL champions since Man United in 2006-07 and 2007-08. Although the oddsmakers are favoring Arsenal, there are a multitude of relevant factors at play.
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EPL title odds in year of change
The departure of Guardiola and the hiring of manager Enzo Maresca, formerly of Chelsea, Leicester City and Man City’s youth academy, marks a significant change for the club. He already recruited midfielder Elliot Anderson for £116 million ($155.8 million) and could still bring in other targets, but more importantly, he is expected to change City’s style of play.
Liverpool is also under new management with Andoni Iraola, formerly of Bournemouth. He succeeded 2024-25 title-winner Arne Slot after the club fell from 84 to 60 points. They will also be playing their first campaign since 2016 without the iconic Mo Salah, who left for Trabzonspor after scoring 156 league goals in England.
Man United is rolling with once-temporary manager Michael Carrick as its permanent boss after he impressed since being given the job in January. The Red Devils upgraded their midfield with Andrey Santos and Youri Tielemans and could still be active in the market.
Chelsea, which only finished 10th last year, will take the pitch with Xabi Alonso in the dugout. Their British-record acquisition of Morgan Rogers for £117 million ($157.9 million) headlined their summer, but Alonso himself is only a couple of years removed from going undefeated and guiding Bayer Leverkusen to a shocking title-winning season in the German Bundesliga.
Tottenham’s position in the EPL odds board is tied to its history as a “Big Six” club — the teams that dominated the league during the 2000s and 2010s — and also its transfer activity. The club splurged £92.3 million ($124.7 million) on midfielder Sandro Tonali, £84.6 million (114.3 million) on midfielder Mateus Fernandes, and £51.3 million ($69.3 million) on defender Jan Paul van Hecke.
Aston Villa lost Rogers, Tielemans, and several others, but is still under the excellent management of Unai Emery.
EPL Golden Boot odds
Man City striker Erling Haaland (-155) is the EPL Golden Boot odds leader for what would be his second straight and fourth trophy in five years. No other active player in the Premier League previously won the Golden Boot.
Liverpool striker Alexander Isak (+850), Brentford striker Igor Thiago (+1100), and Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins (+1,600) represent the top contenders, although Haaland’s odds suggest that he has a 60.8% chance of winning the honor.
